The second response would likely be the best choice: "Cooling climate led to reduced harvests, which caused people to be ill-nourished and more likely to get sick."
This response reflects how environmental factors can have a significant impact on public health; poor nutrition can weaken the immune system, making individuals more susceptible to diseases such as the Black Death. The other options either misattribute the origins or spread of the plague or suggest factors that were less influential in the context of how the Black Death affected populations.