Certainly! Below is a sample structure for how to complete your assignment based on selecting two states (let’s take Texas and Illinois as an example). Please make sure to verify the specific election numbers from reliable sources, as these can vary slightly depending on the source used.
Part 1: Presidential Election Results
Texas
Illinois
| Year | Presidential Candidate | Political Party | Electoral College Votes | Margin of Victory % | Difference (Dem - Rep) | |--------|------------------------|-----------------|------------------------|---------------------|------------------------| | 2020 | Joe Biden | Democratic | 38 | 1.7% | 6.3% | | | Donald Trump | Republican | 0 | | | | 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 36 | 9.0% | -9.0% | | | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 0 | | | | 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 38 | 16.0% | 11.0% | | | Mitt Romney | Republican | 0 | | | | 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 34 | 11.0% | 7.5% | | | John McCain | Republican | 0 | | | | 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 34 | 23.0% | -12.0% | | | John Kerry | Democratic | 0 | | | | 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 32 | 5.9% | -3.0% | | | Al Gore | Democratic | 0 | | |
| Year | Presidential Candidate | Political Party | Electoral College Votes | Margin of Victory % | Difference (Dem - Rep) | |--------|------------------------|-----------------|------------------------|---------------------|------------------------| | 2020 | Joe Biden | Democratic | 20 | 17.0% | 20.0% | | | Donald Trump | Republican | 0 | | | | 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 20 | 0.4% | 0.1% | | | Donald Trump | Republican | 0 | | | | 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 20 | 16.0% | 11.0% | | | Mitt Romney | Republican | 0 | | | | 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 21 | 26.0% | 18.0% | | | John McCain | Republican | 0 | | | | 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 21 | 11.0% | 7.0% | | | George W. Bush | Republican | 0 | | | | 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 21 | 5.0% | 3.0% | | | George W. Bush | Republican | 0 | | |
Part 2: Election Results Analysis
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Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case?
Texas and Illinois display significantly different voting patterns. While Texas has primarily leaned Republican in the last six elections, Illinois has reliably voted for the Democratic candidate. The demographic and cultural aspects of each state likely influence these outcomes. Texas, with its larger population of conservative voters and a growing number of independents, remains solidly Republican, while Illinois, with its urban centers like Chicago, tends to favor Democratic policies and candidates that align with the needs of urban voters. -
From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win.
In 2012, Barack Obama won Illinois by a margin of 16%, and George W. Bush won Texas by a margin of 23% in 2004. Large margins of victory often indicate strong partisan support or voter turnout for those parties during that election cycle. One reason for larger margins can be attributed to key demographic factors in the state. For example, in states with significant urban populations, candidates addressing urban issues can resonate more closely with voters, often leading to larger victories. -
Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections?
Illinois' consistent support for Democratic candidates reflects the national trend for those years, especially in urban election years. Texas, however, often shows varying results that suggest it could swing either way in the future, making it a valuable "Measuring Stick" for electoral predictions, especially considering its changing demographics. -
Look back at the main page at Race to 270. Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election. If either of your states had gone the “other way,” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not?
If Texas had gone to Joe Biden, the outcome of the 2020 election could have been significantly different, considering its large number of electoral votes (38). This would mean additional crucial votes for Biden, potentially impacting the overall electoral outcome. -
What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions.
Based on current trends, I predict Illinois will remain a Democratic stronghold in 2024 due to its urban voter base supporting progressive policies, while Texas may edge closer to becoming a battleground state given its shifting demographics and the growing number of independent voters. The increasing diversity and urbanization of Texas could lead to a tighter race in the next election.
When completing your project, be sure to fill in your specific data for whatever states you've chosen and ensure that you've conducted thorough research for the most accurate results. Good luck!