The Delphi technique involves a group of knowledgeable experts who make sales predictions through multiple rounds of discussion and feedback until they reach an agreement.
The Delphi technique can be used not only for sales forecasting, but also to predict
what may happen in a specific industry. The Delphi technique utilises a panel of experts
in a number of controlled brainstorming sessions to make informed predictions. After
the first round of brainstorming, the experts’ answers are summarised and then used
to lead the next session’s discussions. This process is repeated for a predetermined
number of rounds or until sufficient consensus is reached. The panel of experts can
consist of sales managers, senior salespeople, managing directors, chief executive
officers, and anyone with expert knowledge on the particular industry. A Delphi
sales forecasting panel can consist of anywhere between 10 and 10 000 people. Those
selected must be knowledgeable and can be from different backgrounds, training and
organisations, as long as they have expertise in the field for which the sales forecast
is to be done.
Each member of the panel is sent a letter and asked to make a forecast of sales in
the industry. Once the answers are received, they are edited and a list of statements
is drawn up. This list is then sent to panel members again to indicate when they
think the changes in sales will occur, and what the possibility is for specific sales
estimates. The answers gathered in the second round are tabulated, and further
rounds are undertaken if necessary. For the Delphi sales forecast to be successful, the
most important requirement is the panel of experts.
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