Question

Assume you take the bus to campus. About every 5 times (1 in 5) you take the bus in the morning it is full when it comes to your stop and it takes no more passengers. This means that you have to wait for the next available bus. To your surprise, 3 days in a row the bus is full when it comes to your stop. Based on your previous estimate, what is the probability of this happening?

Answer 1

one in five (.2)

Answer 2

.2 is the probability of it happening once. The probability of it happening 3 times in a row = .2^3 = .2*.2*.2 = .008.