The correct requirement for a full-year U.S. resident with an adjusted gross income under $150,000 to pay estimated tax payments is:
A taxpayer must make 2024 estimated tax payments if they owe $1,000 or more, and it appears that the total amount withheld from their 2024 income plus expected credits will be less than the smaller of the following: 90% of the tax to be shown on their 2024 return or 100% of the tax shown on their 2023 return.
This aligns with the general guidelines for estimated tax payments for most taxpayers under the threshold mentioned.