The relationship between the concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and average global temperature over time is generally characterized as a positive correlation. As CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase, global temperatures tend to rise as well. This relationship is supported by multiple lines of scientific evidence, including:
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Historical Data: Ice core data show that over glacial and interglacial cycles, periods of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations correlate with warmer global temperatures. For instance, during the past several hundred thousand years, higher levels of CO2 have been associated with warmer climates and lower levels with cooler climates.
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Greenhouse Effect: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, meaning it traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere. When CO2 levels rise, they enhance the greenhouse effect, leading to an increase in global temperatures.
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Recent Trends: Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities—primarily fossil fuel combustion and deforestation—have significantly increased atmospheric CO2 levels, leading to a corresponding rise in average global temperatures. This trend is evident in temperature records, which show a marked increase in global temperatures over the last century.
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Climate Models: Climate models that simulate Earth's climate behavior under different scenarios of CO2 concentrations predict that increased levels of CO2 will lead to higher global temperatures, reinforcing observed trends.
In summary, the relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and average global temperature is one of strong correlation, driven by the fundamental physics of greenhouse gases and supported by empirical evidence across various time scales.
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