The New Madrid Seismic Zone is a well-studied area in the central United States known for its potential to experience large earthquakes. According to scientific assessments, the likelihood of a significant earthquake occurring in the New Madrid region can be estimated based on historical seismic activity and geological studies.
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Over 50 years: Studies suggest there is a 25-40% chance of a major (magnitude 6.0 or greater) earthquake occurring within the next 50 years.
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Over 100 years: The likelihood increases over a longer timeframe, and estimates for 100 years may suggest a greater than 50% chance of experiencing a major earthquake.
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Over 10 years: The chances are significantly lower; estimates usually indicate a less than 10% chance of a major earthquake in any given decade.
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Over 1 year: On an annual basis, the likelihood is typically around 1% or less for a major earthquake.
These percentages are based on probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and can vary based on ongoing research and seismic monitoring. For the most accurate and updated probabilities, it's advisable to consult resources from geological surveys such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS).