The table shows the number of games a team won and lost last season.

Wins and Losses Last Season

Number of Games
Wins
24
Losses
16

Greg has tickets to six of the team’s games this season. He is designing a simulation, using last year’s wins and losses, to predict whether the team will win or lose each of the games he attends.

Which tool is most appropriate for use in a simulation that fits the data?
a coin with one side representing a win and the other representing a loss
a 6-section spinner with congruent sections, 4 representing a win and 2 representing a loss
a 5-section spinner with congruent sections, 3 representing a win and 2 representing a loss
an 8-sided die with 5 sides representing a win and 3 sides representing a loss

1 answer

To determine the most appropriate tool for the simulation, we first need to calculate the win-loss ratio based on the team's performance last season.

The total number of games played last season is the sum of wins and losses:

\[ \text{Total Games} = \text{Wins} + \text{Losses} = 24 + 16 = 40 \]

Now, we can calculate the fraction of games won:

\[ \text{Win Probability} = \frac{\text{Wins}}{\text{Total Games}} = \frac{24}{40} = 0.6 \]

And the fraction of games lost:

\[ \text{Loss Probability} = \frac{\text{Losses}}{\text{Total Games}} = \frac{16}{40} = 0.4 \]

To simulate this with a tool, we should match these probabilities as closely as possible.

Let's evaluate the options:

  1. A coin with one side representing a win and the other representing a loss: This gives a 50% chance of win and a 50% chance of loss, which does not match the ratio.

  2. A 6-section spinner with congruent sections, 4 representing a win and 2 representing a loss: This gives a probability of winning of \(\frac{4}{6} \approx 0.67\) and losing \(\frac{2}{6} \approx 0.33\). This is closer, but not accurate.

  3. A 5-section spinner with congruent sections, 3 representing a win and 2 representing a loss: This gives a probability of winning of \(\frac{3}{5} = 0.6\) and losing \(\frac{2}{5} = 0.4\). This matches the win-loss ratio perfectly.

  4. An 8-sided die with 5 sides representing a win and 3 sides representing a loss: This gives a win probability of \(\frac{5}{8} = 0.625\) and a loss probability of \(\frac{3}{8} = 0.375\), which is not accurate.

Based on this analysis, the most appropriate tool for simulating the team's wins and losses based on last season's data is:

A 5-section spinner with congruent sections, 3 representing a win and 2 representing a loss.