The number of shipwrecks in a year along a certain shipping route has a population distribution as shown in the probability histogram below. The population mean is also given.

0-0.5 shipwrecks is a probability of 0.2
0.5 to 1.5 shipwrecks has a probability of 0.5
1.5 to 3 shipwrecks has a probability of 0.2

(a) What would the sampling distribution of the sample mean for a random sample of size n=2 years look like?

3 answers

To determine the sampling distribution of the sample mean for a random sample of size \( n=2 \) years from the given population distribution of shipwrecks, we need to follow these steps:

  1. Understand the Population Distribution: We have the following probabilities for different ranges of shipwrecks:

    • \( P(0 \leq x < 0.5) = 0.2 \)
    • \( P(0.5 \leq x < 1.5) = 0.5 \)
    • \( P(1.5 \leq x < 3) = 0.2 \)

    Note that the mean of this population has been given as part of the problem, though you didn't specify its value. For the sake of this analysis, let's denote the population mean as \( \mu \).

  2. Calculate Possible Sample Means: Since we are taking samples of size \( n=2 \), we can have different combinations of shipwrecks sampled over the two years. We can summarize this as follows:

    • Possible mean for combinations:
      • \( (x_1, x_2) \) where each \( x_i \) can take values within the ranges determined by the probability histogram.
  3. Calculate Sampling Distribution: We’ll need to consider the probabilities of the combinations of possible shipwreck counts. The sample mean is computed as \( \bar{x} = \frac{x_1 + x_2}{2} \).

    Here are the combinations we'll consider:

    • From the interval \( [0, 0.5) \):
      • \( (0, 0) \), \( (0, 0.5) \), \( (0.5, 0) \), \( (0.5, 0.5) \)
    • From the interval \( [0.5, 1.5) \):
      • \( (0.5, 0) \), \( (0.5, 0.5) \), etc.

    As you calculate sample means for all the possible pairs from the ranges, you will end up with the following values for means (noting that you will ultimately weight these based on their probabilities):

  4. Assign Probabilities to Sample Means: To find the sampling distribution, we would calculate the probabilities associated with each unique sample mean value and then create a new distribution based on these probabilities.

For instance, if \( x_1 \) and \( x_2 \) both fall in the range \([0, 0.5)\), the sample mean will be in that range as hinted above. Similarly, a sample mean could be in the range \([0.5, 1.5)\) and so on.

  1. Final Distribution: Collect sample mean values with their corresponding probabilities and build the probability distribution of the sample mean.

To summarize, while I cannot give you the exact numbers without knowing the mean value or having clarity on integrating ranges, the procedure will involve listing out possible combinations of shipwreck counts, calculating their means, and determining the associated probabilities based on the original distribution.

A useful approximation, as you sample larger \( n \), is that by the Central Limit Theorem, as \( n \) increases, the distribution of the sample mean will approach a normal distribution with mean \( \mu \) and a variance of \( \sigma^2 / n\), where \( \sigma^2 \) is the variance of the population distribution. However, take caution that for small \( n \), such as 2, this normal approximation is less accurate unless the original population distribution is already approximately normal.

the population mean is u=1

Thank you for providing the population mean \( \mu = 1 \). Let's proceed to derive the sampling distribution of the sample mean for a random sample of size \( n = 2 \).

Step 1: Understanding the Distribution

Given the probabilities of the ranges of shipwrecks:

  • \( P(0 \leq x < 0.5) = 0.2 \)
  • \( P(0.5 \leq x < 1.5) = 0.5 \)
  • \( P(1.5 \leq x < 3) = 0.2 \)

Step 2: Possible Values of Sample Means

When sampling two years, the possible values for shipwrecks \( x_1 \) and \( x_2 \) can be taken from the specified ranges. The sample mean \( \bar{x} \) is given by: \[ \bar{x} = \frac{x_1 + x_2}{2} \]

To find the means based on the ranges, consider combinations of shipwreck counts for two years.

Step 3: Calculating Sample Means and Their Probabilities

  1. Combinations of Sample Values:

    • From the range [0, 0.5): Possible values are close to 0.

      • Sample mean combinations will produce means close to 0.
    • From the range [0.5, 1.5): Possible values include numbers from 0.5 up to values just below 1.5.

      • For \( x_1 = 0.5 \) and \( x_2 \) in this range, we can compute sample means.
    • From the range [1.5, 3): Values from 1.5 to just below 3 will produce higher sample means.

  2. Calculating Sample Means:

    • For each combination of \( x_1 \) and \( x_2 \), compute \( \bar{x} \).

For Key Combinations:

Here’s how we find combinations of sample outcomes:

  • Both values from [0, 0.5):

    • Possible sample means: \( \bar{x} \in [0, 0.5) \)
  • One value from [0, 0.5), one from [0.5, 1.5):

    • \( \bar{x} \) can range from \( 0.25 \) to \( 1 \)
  • Both values from [0.5, 1.5):

    • Possible means: values from 0.5 to 1.5
  • One from [0.5, 1.5) and one from [1.5, 3):

    • \( \bar{x} \) can range from something close to \( 1 \) to \( 2 \).
  • Both from [1.5, 3):

    • Possible means: values from \( 0.75 \) to 1.5 effectively.

Step 4: Final Sampling Distribution

To summarize, while exact calculations can be performed through enumeration, the essential components of the sampling distribution for \( n = 2 \) would consist of:

  1. Values around combinations producing means from roughly 0 to 2.0.
  2. Probabilities associated with these means derived through:
    • Square combinations leading to a pairing of probabilities based on original histogram probabilities.

Final Note on Central Limit Theorem

As \( n \) increases, the sampling distribution approaches normality. However, with \( n = 2 \), you'll have to calculate the specific distributions based on the derived means of the combinations directly from the pairs.

Conclusion

With the sample size \( n = 2 \), and knowing \( \mu = 1 \), you would set up a probability distribution accounting for individual means values derived from combinations of intervals and appropriately weight them based on primary probability distribution. This involves creating a probability mass function (PMF) of the possible mean values calculated based on sampled combinations.