Simulation to Predict Probability

Question

Suppose a basketball player typically makes five out of eight foul shots.

how could you predict the probability of the player making at least one shot out of 3 foul shot attempts?
Responses
A Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
B Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
C Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
D Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.

Answer 1

None of the options presented are correct for predicting the probability of the basketball player making at least one shot out of 3 foul shot attempts. The best option would be to carry out a simulation where the basketball player takes 3 foul shots in each trial, and the outcome of each shot is determined by a random number generator using the player's 5/8 success rate. The simulation can then be run multiple times (e.g. 10,000 trials) to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3.