The first response is the most accurate given the context of the trend described. It effectively captures the following key points:
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Labor Shortage: As the population ages and more individuals reach retirement age (65 or older), there may not be enough younger individuals (under 18) entering the workforce to replace them. This can lead to a shortage of workers, which can hinder economic productivity and growth.
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Decreasing Population: The overall trend of a declining younger population can contribute to a smaller workforce and potentially a smaller consumer base over time, which can negatively affect overall economic activity.
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Stagnation of the Economy: With fewer workers available and a shrinking population, the state's economic growth could slow, lagging due to reduced consumer spending and decreased workforce participation.
Therefore, the most fitting response would be: "This trend would have a detrimental effect on economic growth. There may be a labor shortage if too many people retire with not enough people to replace them, stagnating the economy."