Your problem is the classic "Monte Hall" problem
Wikepedia gives an excellent solution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
on a tv game show,you try to win a prize that is hidden behind one of the three doors.after you choose a door, but before it is open,the host opens one of the other doors,behind which there is no prize.you can then switch the remaining closed door or stay with your orginial prize.
A: find the experimental probability of winning if your stragety is to stay with your orginal choice( hint:simulate by using one marked index card and two unmarked index cards.
B: find the experimental probability of winning if your stragety is to switch to the other door.
C: should you stay or switch in this game. Explain??
please help me i am confused...
thank you :)
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