Mississippi and New Jersey 2000-2020

Question

Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate.

Answer 1

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden won the state of New Jersey, which has 14 electoral votes, while Donald Trump won Mississippi, which has 6 electoral votes. To switch the electoral votes according to your instructions, we will assign New Jersey's 14 electoral votes to Donald Trump (loser in New Jersey) and Mississippi's 6 electoral votes to Joe Biden (loser in Mississippi).

Here's the original outcome of the 2020 election for these two states:

• New Jersey:

  • Joe Biden: 14 electoral votes
  • Donald Trump: 0 electoral votes

• Mississippi:

  • Joe Biden: 0 electoral votes
  • Donald Trump: 6 electoral votes

After switching the electoral votes based on your scenario, the outcome would be:

• New Jersey:

  • Joe Biden: 0 electoral votes
  • Donald Trump: 14 electoral votes

• Mississippi:

  • Joe Biden: 6 electoral votes
  • Donald Trump: 0 electoral votes

Now, let's summarize the electoral votes after the switch:

1. Biden's new total:

   • Original: 306
   • Gains Mississippi's 6 votes: 306 + 6 = 312 electoral votes.

2. Trump's new total:

   • Original: 232
   • Gains New Jersey's 14 votes: 232 + 14 = 246 electoral votes.

Recalculated Electoral Votes:

• Joe Biden: 312 electoral votes
• Donald Trump: 246 electoral votes

Thus, with the switched electoral votes, Joe Biden would still win the presidency with 312 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump's 246 electoral votes.

Answer 2

If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not?

Answer 3

To determine if the outcome of the 2020 presidential election would have changed if either Mississippi or New Jersey had gone the “other way,” we can analyze the implications:

1. New Jersey:

   • In the 2020 election, New Jersey had 14 electoral votes and was won by Joe Biden. If New Jersey had gone to Donald Trump instead, Biden would have lost those 14 electoral votes.
   • Original Electoral Vote Count for Biden: 306
   • If New Jersey had gone to Trump: 306 - 14 = 292 electoral votes for Biden.
   • Trump would then have 232 + 14 = 246 + 14 = 260 electoral votes, which would not be enough to win the election, as Biden would still have 292 electoral votes.

2. Mississippi:

   • Mississippi had 6 electoral votes and was won by Donald Trump. If Mississippi had gone to Joe Biden, he would have gained those 6 electoral votes.
   • Original Electoral Vote Count for Biden: 306
   • If Mississippi had gone to Biden: 306 + 6 = 312 electoral votes for Biden.
   • Trump would then have 232 - 6 = 226 electoral votes, which would again not be enough to win the election.

Conclusion:

Neither state's outcome change would affect the overall result of the election for Biden:

• If New Jersey had flipped to Trump, Biden would still have 292 electoral votes, which is a significant majority.
• If Mississippi had flipped to Biden, he would still end up with a larger number of electoral votes (312) than Trump.

Final Analysis:

• New Jersey's hypothetical flip to Trump would not change the outcome.
• Mississippi's hypothetical flip to Biden also would not change the outcome.

In conclusion, the winner of the 2020 election would remain the same regardless of whether Mississippi or New Jersey had switched their outcomes. Both scenarios would not be enough to reverse Biden's victory.

Answer 4

What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions.

Answer 5

Predicting electoral outcomes, especially for specific states like Mississippi and New Jersey, involves analyzing trends and historical voting patterns. Here’s a brief analysis of each state and potential predictions for the 2024 election:

New Jersey

Current Trends:

• New Jersey has historically leaned Democratic, with Joe Biden winning the state by a significant margin in the 2020 election (57.3% for Biden vs. 41.4% for Trump).
• Factors such as suburban growth, increasing diversity, and shifting demographics contribute to New Jersey's Democratic leanings. The state also has a high concentration of urban voters in cities like Newark, Jersey City, and the Philadelphia suburbs, which tend to favor Democratic candidates.

Prediction for 2024:

• It is likely that New Jersey will remain a Democratic stronghold in the 2024 election. Biden's popularity and the state’s trends toward progressive policies suggest that he (or the Democratic candidate) could maintain or slightly increase support in urban and suburban areas. Republican candidates may struggle to gain traction unless they make significant inroads into these demographics.

Justification:

• The political landscape in New Jersey indicates a lean towards the Democratic Party. Notably, in the 2022 midterms, Democrats performed well in legislative races, which may indicate continued support for Democratic policies and candidates going into 2024.

Mississippi

Current Trends:

• Mississippi has consistently been a Republican stronghold. In the 2020 election, Trump won the state with 57.9% of the vote to Biden's 40.1%.
• The state has deep-rooted conservative values, with a significant rural population, and its demographic trends have historically favored Republican candidates.

Prediction for 2024:

• Mississippi is likely to remain a Republican stronghold in the 2024 election. The political climate suggests that the state will continue to support Republican candidates, particularly if Trump runs again or a similarly conservative figure emerges.

Justification:

• The cultural and economic factors in Mississippi strongly align with Republican policies, especially on issues like taxes, healthcare, and social conservatism. Additionally, voter turnout patterns in rural areas that lean Republican have historically shown stability.

Conclusion:

• New Jersey is expected to trend Democratic once more in 2024 due to its existing political landscape, demographic changes, and urban-suburban dynamics favoring Democrats.
• Mississippi is expected to remain firmly in the Republican camp, with conservative values deeply entrenched and little sign of significant change given current sociopolitical trends.

These predictions will depend on various factors leading up to the election, including candidates, campaign strategies, national sentiments, and issues that resonate with voters in each state. Voter turnout and shifting demographics will be crucial in shaping the outcome for both states in 2024.