In 2012 the General Social Survey asked 833 adults how many years of education they had. The sample mean was 9.77 years with a standard deviation of 9.53 years.

(a) Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean number of years of education. Round the answers to at least two decimal places.

A 99% confidence interval for the mean number of years of education is [blank] < u < [blank]
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3 answers

To construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean number of years of education, we can use the formula for the confidence interval for the mean when the population standard deviation is unknown (using the t-distribution):

\[ \bar{x} \pm t^* \left( \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \right) \]

Where:

  • \(\bar{x}\) is the sample mean
  • \(t^*\) is the t-score corresponding to the desired confidence level and degrees of freedom
  • \(s\) is the sample standard deviation
  • \(n\) is the sample size

Given values:

  • Sample mean (\(\bar{x}\)) = 9.77 years
  • Sample standard deviation (\(s\)) = 9.53 years
  • Sample size (\(n\)) = 833
  • Confidence level = 99%

First, we find the degrees of freedom (df):

\[ df = n - 1 = 833 - 1 = 832 \]

Next, we look up the t-score for a 99% confidence level and 832 degrees of freedom. The t-score can be found using statistical tables or software (or using a calculator). For a 99% confidence level, the t-score is approximately 2.626.

Now, we can compute the standard error (SE):

\[ SE = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{9.53}{\sqrt{833}} \approx \frac{9.53}{28.86} \approx 0.3305 \]

Now, apply the t-score to find the margin of error (ME):

\[ ME = t^* \times SE = 2.626 \times 0.3305 \approx 0.8684 \]

Finally, we can construct the confidence interval:

\[ \text{Lower limit} = \bar{x} - ME = 9.77 - 0.8684 \approx 8.90 \]

\[ \text{Upper limit} = \bar{x} + ME = 9.77 + 0.8684 \approx 10.64 \]

Thus, the 99% confidence interval for the mean number of years of education is approximately:

\[ [8.90 < \mu < 10.64] \]

Therefore, the final answer is:

A 99% confidence interval for the mean number of years of education is \([8.90 < \mu < 10.64]\).

(b) Data collected in an earlier study suggest that the mean in 2000 was 6.93 years. A sociologist believes than the mean in 2012 is the same. Does the confidence interval contradict this claim? Explain.

To determine whether the confidence interval constructed for the mean number of years of education in 2012 contradicts the sociologist's claim that the mean in 2012 is the same as the mean in 2000 (which was 6.93 years), we need to analyze the confidence interval.

From part (a), we found the 99% confidence interval for the mean number of years of education in 2012 to be approximately:

\[ [8.90 < \mu < 10.64] \]

The key value to compare is the claimed mean from the year 2000, which is 6.93 years.

Analysis

  1. Examine the Confidence Interval:

    • The confidence interval for 2012 indicates that we are 99% confident that the true mean number of years of education for the population in 2012 falls between 8.90 and 10.64 years.
  2. Comparison with the 2000 Mean:

    • The claimed mean for the year 2000 is 6.93 years.
    • This value (6.93) is not contained within the confidence interval of [8.90, 10.64].

Conclusion

Since 6.93 is outside the range of the confidence interval for 2012, we can conclude that there is strong evidence to suggest that the mean number of years of education in 2012 is significantly different from the mean in 2000. Therefore, the confidence interval does contradict the sociologist's claim that the mean in 2012 is the same as it was in 2000.

In summary, the confidence interval indicates that the mean years of education in 2012 is significantly higher than the mean in 2000, thereby contradicting the sociologist's belief that the means are the same.