If the probability of an authentic laying goose is 0.83, find the probability of getting a laying goose on or before the fourht trial.

Question

I think that answer is:
(0.17)(0.17)(0.17)(0.83)=.00407

*the answer needs to be rounded to three significant digits*

Answer 1

Assuming that you are picking your geese from a yard full of an infinite number of geese , the chances of not getting a good one are the same for all four picks and are .17 indeed
so the chances of not getting at least one good one are
.17^4 = .000835
The probability of getting at least one good one is therefore 1 - .000835
= .999 to three significant figures.

Answer 2

Thank you so much that makes perfect sense but I forgot to say that there are 6 geese not an infinate amount.

Answer 3

Well, the way your question is worded, the probability does not seem to change as you run out of geese, so my answer would not change.
But beware, if they said 4 out of 6 were layers, the probability would be 100%

Answer 4

I mean 5 out of THIS six were layers.