I have a simple set of 10 data points

My ten Data Points
2
3
3
4
5
8
9
11
11
13
(mean = 6.9)

My prediction nodel predicts the following values for the ten data points (listed in same order)
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12

I calculate
SST = SIGMA (VALUE - MEAN)^2 = 142.9
SSM = SIGMA (MODEL - MEAN)^2 = 108.9
SSE = SIGMA (VALUE - MODEL)^2 = 6

I thought SSM + SSE = SST, but
SSM + SSE = 114.9 which doesn't equal 142.9

Where am I going wrong?

1 answer