Directions: You will answer five questions based on the data you have gathered and added to the charts on Page 2. Each question is worth 10 points for a total of 50 points. Provide your answers in complete sentences. Answer thoroughly and accurately.

Question

1
Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case? (10 Points)

2
From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win. (10 Points)

3
Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections? (10 Points)

4
Look back at the main page at Race to 270
Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate. If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not? (10 Points)

5
What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions. (10 Points)

Answer 1

Sure! While I don't have access to the specific charts or data you mentioned, I can provide a comprehensive guide on how to approach each question based on hypothetical states and their voting patterns. You can adjust the specifics based on the actual data you have.

1. Voting Patterns in States

The voting patterns in my two states, State A and State B, are distinctly different. For instance, State A has consistently favored the Democratic Party in recent elections, while State B has shown a preference for the Republican Party. In the last three presidential elections, Democratic candidates won in State A, whereas Republican candidates triumphed in State B. The divergence in voting behavior could be attributed to a number of factors, including demographic differences, economic priorities, and social issues. State A has a more urban population with progressive policies, while State B has a larger rural demographic that tends to lean conservative.

2. Margin of Victories

In analyzing the chart data, candidates who won by a margin greater than 4% include Candidate X in State A and Candidate Y in State B. Candidate X won State A by a margin of 7%, and Candidate Y won State B by a margin of 10%. A significant win, such as these, can be attributed to a strong campaign focus on key issues relevant to the electorate, effective mobilization of voters, and possibly a lack of strong opposition. For example, in the 2020 election, Candidate X was able to capitalize on growing concerns about climate change, which resonates deeply with State A's voters. A Google fact supporting this is that a higher voter turnout often correlates with larger margins of victory, as seen in the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission data indicating that efforts to increase voter turnout can lead to sizable electoral successes.

3. Reflecting Overall Results

Yes, both states’ votes were reflective of the overall results of the presidential race in 2020. The winning candidate secured victories in both State A and State B, demonstrating a consistent trend. State A could serve as a “Measuring Stick” for predicting electoral outcomes in future elections because it frequently mirrors national trends and issues, such as social justice and healthcare reform. This alignment indicates that voter sentiment in State A could be indicative of wider national sentiments, making it a potentially valuable state for gauging future election outcomes.

4. Impact on 2020 Election Results

If we switch the electoral votes in State A and State B, giving the electoral votes of these states to the losing candidate in 2020, the outcome would indeed change. If State A voters had switched their support to the Republican candidate, it would have shifted key electoral votes that could have changed the national outcome. For instance, two electoral votes from State A could have been pivotal, potentially leading to a very narrow victory for the Republican Party. On the other hand, if State B had swung in favor of the Democratic candidate, the overall outcome may not have changed since the Republican candidate won by a significant margin in that state.

5. Predictions for 2024 Election

Looking forward to the 2024 election, I predict that State A will continue to lean Democratic due to increasing urbanization and a younger voter demographic prioritizing progressive issues. However, State B may witness a tightening of the margins due to emerging demographic shifts and changing economic concerns, such as inflation and job availability impacting rural voters. These trends suggest that while State A may solidify its support for Democratic candidates, State B could become more competitive, providing fertile ground for Democratic candidates to make inroads. Historical trends show that shifts in electorate demographics can significantly influence election outcomes, and focusing on local issues will be crucial for both parties looking ahead.

Feel free to modify any specifics or examples based on the unique data you have collected!