Total Immunity: Share of people who have been vaccinated plus the estimated share of people who have recovered from infection.
Vaccine Immunity: Share of people who are fully vaccinated.
Herd immunity range: 70 percent – 90 percent of people are immune to the virus either because of vaccinations or infection and recovery.
These four graphs show when the United States is predicted to reach herd immunity under different scenarios. Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely. Herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination or through natural infection.
The graphs were generated from a mathematical model using data as of Feb. 16, 2021, for the number of people who have been vaccinated and an estimate of the number of people who have been infected by Covid-19 and have recovered. Four scenarios are modeled:
Graph A: Maintaining the current supply of vaccinations and public precautions (masking and social distancing)
Graph B: Increasing the vaccine supply and maintaining public precautions
Graph C: Maintaining the vaccine supply with lifting some public precautions in the spring
Graph D: Maintaining vaccine supply and public precautions, but experiencing contagious variants
The model assumes that immunity lasts indefinitely and that vaccination prevents infection rather than just reducing the symptoms.
After looking closely at the graphs above (or at this full-size image), answer these four questions:
What do you notice?
What do you wonder?
What impact does this have on you and your community?
What’s going on in these graphs? Write a catchy headline that captures the graph’s main idea.
The questions are intended to build on one another, so try to answer them in order.
2. Next, join the conversation online by clicking on the comment button and posting in the box. (Teachers of students younger than 13 are welcome to post their students’ responses.)
3. Below the response box, there is an option for students to click on “Email me when my comment is published.” This sends the link to their response which they can share with their teacher.
4. After you have posted, read what others have said, then respond to someone else by posting a comment. Use the “Reply” button to address that student directly.
On Wednesday, March 10, teachers from our collaborator, the American Statistical Association, will facilitate this discussion from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Eastern time.
5. By Friday morning, March 12, we will reveal more information about the graph, including a free link to the article that included this graph, at the bottom of this post. We encourage you to post additional comments based on the article, possibly using statistical terms defined in the Stat Nuggets.
UPDATED: MARCH 11, 2021
The Reveal
With the objective of curtailing coronavirus as quickly as possible with the fewest number of deaths, researchers from PHICOR, headquartered at the City University of New York School of Public Health & Health Policy, modeled different scenarios for paths of total immunity and vaccine immunity.
Graph A: What would happen if we just proceeded as we are doing currently?
Graph B: What would happen if people were vaccinated more quickly?
Graph C: What would happen if public precautions, like masking and social distancing, were reduced?
Graph D: What would happen if more contagious coronavirus variants appeared?
The February 20, 2021 New York Times article “When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.” shows ten scenarios, four of which are included here. The outputs of the models for each scenario are the month that total immunity and vaccine immunity reaches the herd immunity threshold and the number of deaths prior to herd immunity.
What do we notice? Of the four graphs, the US would reach herd immunity earliest and the fewest people would die if more people are vaccinated sooner in the scenario depicted in Graph B. In Graph C, if we relax public precautions, the model predicts that the U.S. would reach herd immunity sooner, but many more people would die. Why would the U.S. reach herd immunity sooner? Fewer public precautions allow coronavirus to spread more quickly, resulting in more people either dying or recovering with immunity. In Graph D, if more contagious variants spread, the model predicts that the herd immunity threshold would increase to more than 70 percent and deaths could double or even more.
Not reaching herd immunity before the arrival of contagious variants may result in an unacceptable number of deaths. Go to the article to see models for additional scenarios involving the three variables: vaccine shots, public precautions and contagious variants. What would you recommend as a strategy?
Here are some of the student headlines that capture the stories of these graphs: “Have Vaccine and Patience. Will Travel.” by Mitch of Pennsylvania, “Four Paths to the Normal World—But at What Cost?” by Paul of Memphis, Tennessee, “Have You HEaRD? Herd Immunity Is Coming!” by Eliana of New York, “Having a Normal Summer Is Up to Us: Here Are the Stats” by Audrey of California, “What’s the Quickest Way to Reach Herd Immunity?” by Katie of Andover, Massachusetts, and “What’s More Important, Lives or Freedom?” by Juliana from North Carolina.
You may want to think critically about these questions:
Explain the relationship between each of the variables: number of shots per day, amount of public precautions and presences of contagious variants and the month that the herd immunity threshold is reached.
Explain the relationship between each of the variables: number of shots per day, amount of public precautions and presences of contagious variants and the number of deaths from the virus.
Of the four scenarios, which do you think is the best? Explain your reasoning.
What other variables besides number of shots per day, amount of public precautions and presences of contagious variants could affect the month that the herd immunity threshold is reached.
The next graph on recent land development in the United States will be released by Friday, March 12 with live-moderation on Wednesday, March 17. You can receive the 2020-2021 “What’s Going On In This Graph?” schedule by subscribing here to the Learning Network Friday newsletter. In the meantime, keep noticing and wondering.
________
Stat Nuggets for “When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.”
5. What does the data show? What do you notice
(what story does it tell?)
6. Why is it telling the story you wrote in 5? What
do you wonder?
5 answers
What do you notice?
The graphs depict various scenarios for achieving herd immunity in the U.S., each showing different trajectories based on vaccine availability and public health measures. Graph B shows the earliest potential for reaching herd immunity with the least number of deaths if vaccinations are increased. In contrast, Graph C indicates that lifting public precautions can speed up reaching immunity but significantly raises the expected death toll.
What do you wonder?
I wonder about the long-term effects of relaxed public precautions on community health. How would this impact the spread of variants? Also, what measures can be put in place to ensure accelerated vaccination while maintaining safety?
What impact does this have on you and your community?
The implications of these graphs directly affect public health policies and personal decisions in my community. If the fastest route to herd immunity involves increased vaccinations, there might be a push for mobile clinics or outreach programs to increase participation among residents. Understanding the potential consequences of relaxing restrictions would influence how we engage in public spaces.
What’s going on in these graphs? Write a catchy headline that captures the graph’s main idea.
“Pathways to Herd Immunity: Vaccination Speeds Ahead but Caution is Key!”
What does the data show? What do you notice (what story does it tell?)
The data illustrates the urgency and complexity of achieving herd immunity. It shows that the number of vaccinations, public health measures, and the presence of variants play critical roles in both the timeline for reaching immunity and the potential death toll. Maintaining a balance between vaccination rates and public precautions is crucial to minimize deaths while effectively combating the virus.
Why is it telling the story you wrote in 5? What do you wonder?
The story reflects the dynamic interplay between vaccination efforts, public health policies, and disease spread. I wonder how real-world behaviors and political decisions will influence these predicted scenarios in the coming months. Will public compliance with safety measures remain high, or will there be resistance as people seek to return to normalcy? Additionally, how can communication strategies be optimized to encourage vaccinations while keeping the public vigilant against variants?
The data illustrates the urgency and complexity of achieving herd immunity. It shows that the number of vaccinations, public health measures, and the presence of variants play critical roles in both the timeline for reaching immunity and the potential death toll. Maintaining a balance between vaccination rates and public precautions is crucial to minimize deaths while effectively combating the virus.
Rephrase this sentence in prek
The information shows that it’s really important and tricky to get enough people immune to the virus. It tells us that how many people get vaccinated, what safety rules we follow, and how many new virus types are around all affect how fast we can be safe again and how many people might get sick. We need to find a good mix of getting people vaccinated and keeping everyone safe to help save lives while fighting the virus.
The story reflects the dynamic interplay between vaccination efforts, public health policies, and disease spread. I wonder how real-world behaviors and political decisions will influence these predicted scenarios in the coming months. Will public compliance with safety measures remain high, or will there be resistance as people seek to return to normalcy? Additionally, how can communication strategies be optimized to encourage vaccinations while keeping the public vigilant against variants?
Rephrase this sentence in prek
The story shows how getting vaccinated, following health rules, and the way germs spread all work together. I wonder how people's choices and decisions from our leaders will change what happens in the next few months. Will everyone keep following the safety rules, or will some people want to go back to normal too quickly? Also, how can we share information better to help people get vaccinated and still be careful about new germs?
