Computer sales over the past 4 months have been 35, 34, 38, and 44 units.

Question

Using a 3-month moving average, forecast sales for the next month.
Using a 3-month weighted moving average with the weights 3, 2, and 1, and with the most weight on the most recent data, forecast the next period’s sales.
Calculate the forecast using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 1 and a first period’s forecast of 35.
The fifth period’s sales were actually 46 units. Based on this exercise, which forecasting method would you use going forward? Be sure to show all of your work.