To find the probability of drawing the red ball twice out of five attempts, we can use the binomial probability formula:
\[
P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}
\]
Where:
- \( n \) is the total number of trials (in this case, 5 attempts),
- \( k \) is the number of successful outcomes (in this case, drawing the red ball 2 times),
- \( p \) is the probability of drawing a red ball,
- \( q \) is the probability of not drawing a red ball (drawing a yellow ball).
Step 1: Calculate \( p \) and \( q \)
Since there is 1 red ball and 3 yellow balls, the total number of balls is:
\[
1 + 3 = 4
\]
The probability \( p \) of drawing a red ball is:
\[
p = \frac{1}{4}
\]
The probability \( q \) of drawing a yellow ball is:
\[
q = 1 - p = 1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}
\]
Step 2: Apply the formula
Now we want to find the probability of drawing the red ball \( k = 2 \) times in \( n = 5 \) attempts:
\[
P(X = 2) = \binom{5}{2} \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^2 \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^{5-2}
\]
Step 3: Calculate \( \binom{5}{2} \)
\[
\binom{5}{2} = \frac{5!}{2!(5-2)!} = \frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1} = 10
\]
Step 4: Calculate \( P(X = 2) \)
Now we can substitute everything back into the formula:
\[
P(X = 2) = 10 \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^2 \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^3
\]
Calculating each term:
- \( \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^2 = \frac{1}{16} \)
- \( \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^3 = \frac{27}{64} \)
Now substitute these values into the equation:
\[
P(X = 2) = 10 \times \frac{1}{16} \times \frac{27}{64}
\]
Combine the fractions:
\[
P(X = 2) = 10 \times \frac{27}{1024} = \frac{270}{1024}
\]
Step 5: Simplify and calculate the percentage
Now simplify \( \frac{270}{1024} \):
Since \( 270 \) and \( 1024 \) have no common factors (other than 1), we can calculate the percentage:
\[
\frac{270}{1024} \approx 0.26367 \text{ or } 26.37%
\]
Conclusion
Rounding to the nearest whole number, the probability of drawing the red ball twice out of five attempts is approximately 26 percent.
So the correct answer is:
26 percent