As the time, why did people think that China would easily win the First Sino-Japanese War? Was this assumption correct, and why or why not?

Question

People thought China would win the war because it had less land to defend. This assumption was incorrect because Japan’s technology was more advanced, which helped it win the war.
People thought China would win the war because it had the support of Western imperialist powers. This assumption was incorrect because it turned out Japan had their support also.
People thought China would win the war because Japan had a bigger military. This assumption was incorrect because China’s technology was more advanced, which helped it win the war.
People thought China would win the war because it had a bigger military. This assumption was incorrect because Japan’s technology was more advanced, which helped it win the war.

Answer 1

The assumption that China would easily win the First Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895) was not correct, and the reasons behind this miscalculation involved several geopolitical, military, and technological factors.

1. Military Size vs. Technology: While it is true that China had a larger military in terms of manpower, this alone did not guarantee victory. The key factor that contributed to Japan's success was its superior military technology and modern naval forces. Japan had been actively modernizing its military and adopting Western techniques and equipment, while China was still largely relying on outdated practices and technologies.

2. Training and Organization: Japan had invested significant resources into the training and organization of its military forces. They had a more effective command structure and better-trained troops compared to the Qing Dynasty's army, which was often plagued by corruption, inefficiency, and lack of cohesion.

3. Geopolitical Context: While it is true that China had some level of support from Western powers, this support was not as robust as expected. Many Western powers were actually more interested in maintaining their own influence in the region rather than fully supporting China against Japanese expansion. Conversely, Japan had been able to maneuver diplomatically to secure its interests and, in some cases, received tacit support from Western nations who were wary of Chinese dominance.

4. Public Perception and Nationalism: Japan was undergoing a period of intense nationalism and modernization during the Meiji Restoration, which motivated its military and population. The desire to establish itself as a respected world power drove Japan to victory, while China was facing internal strife and a declining imperial authority.

In summary, while there were assumptions about China's potential advantages—such as its size and supposed external support—the reality was that Japan's modernization, military strategy, and international positioning played decisive roles in its victory in the First Sino-Japanese War. Thus, those assumptions about an easy victory for China were largely incorrect.