An oil exploration company currently has two projects. The company estimates that there is a 40% probability that project A is successful, a 60% probability that project B is successful, and that the success of the two projects is independent.

Given that project A is successful, what is the probability that project B is also successful?

1 answer

To find the probability that both projects A and B are successful, we can multiply the probabilities of each project being successful. Given that the success of the two projects is independent, the probability that both projects are successful is:

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
= 0.40 * 0.60
= 0.24

To find the probability that project B is successful given that project A is successful, we can use conditional probability:

P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A)
= 0.24 / 0.40
= 0.6

Therefore, the probability that project B is successful given that project A is successful is 0.6 or 60%.