An experienced teacher writes an exam so that, on average, about 5% of students will earn an A grade. If she has 50 students in her class and their performance is independent, what is the probability that at least one student gets an A?

1 answer

To solve this problem, we can use the complement rule in probability. The steps are as follows:

  1. Define the Probability of an Individual Student Earning an A: We know that the probability (p) of a student earning an A is 5%, or \( p = 0.05 \). Thus, the probability of a student not earning an A is: \[ q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95. \]

  2. Determine the Number of Students: The teacher has a total of \( n = 50 \) students in her class.

  3. Calculate the Probability that No Students Earn an A: The probability that none of the 50 students earn an A (all students not earning an A) is given by the product of the probabilities of each student not earning an A: \[ P(\text{no A's}) = q^n = (0.95)^{50}. \]

  4. Calculate the Probability: We need to calculate \( (0.95)^{50} \): \[ (0.95)^{50} \approx 0.2146 \quad (\text{using a calculator}). \]

  5. Find the Probability that at Least One Student Earns an A: We now use the complement of the probability that no students earn an A: \[ P(\text{at least one A}) = 1 - P(\text{no A's}) = 1 - (0.95)^{50}. \] Calculating: \[ P(\text{at least one A}) \approx 1 - 0.2146 \approx 0.7854. \]

Thus, the final answer is: \[ \boxed{0.7854} \]

This means there is approximately a 78.54% probability that at least one student in the class will achieve an A grade.