The statement "Water depth likely affects wading birds’ access to food, but this does not affect wading birds’ reproductive success" is not a reasonable inference based on the information provided.
A more reasonable inference would be that water depth influences the availability of fish, which in turn affects the reproductive success of wading birds. In years with higher rainfall, water depth may be more optimal for fish populations, providing better feeding conditions for wading birds. Therefore, it can be inferred that changes in water depth likely have a direct impact on wading bird reproductive success by influencing food availability.