A stock just paid a dividend of $2.51. The dividend is expected to grow at 27.28% for three years and then grow at 4.92% thereafter. The required return on the stock is 11.24%. What is the value of the stock?

1 answer

To calculate the value of the stock, we will follow the steps below:

  1. Calculate the dividends for the first three years when the dividend grows at 27.28%.
  2. Calculate the stock price at the end of Year 3 based on the constant growth of 4.92%.
  3. Discount all future cash flows (dividends and terminal value) back to the present value to find the stock's value today.

Step 1: Calculate Dividends for the First Three Years

The dividend just paid is \( D_0 = 2.51 \).

Year 1:

\[ D_1 = D_0 \times (1 + g_1) = 2.51 \times (1 + 0.2728) = 2.51 \times 1.2728 \approx 3.197 \]

Year 2:

\[ D_2 = D_1 \times (1 + g_1) = 3.197 \times (1 + 0.2728) = 3.197 \times 1.2728 \approx 4.067 \]

Year 3:

\[ D_3 = D_2 \times (1 + g_1) = 4.067 \times (1 + 0.2728) = 4.067 \times 1.2728 \approx 5.177 \]

Step 2: Calculate the Terminal Value at Year 3

Starting from Year 4, the dividend will grow at a constant rate of 4.92%. We need to calculate the dividend for Year 4:

\[ D_4 = D_3 \times (1 + g_2) = 5.177 \times (1 + 0.0492) = 5.177 \times 1.0492 \approx 5.437 \]

Next, we calculate the terminal value at the end of Year 3, which is the present value of all dividends from Year 4 onward:

\[ TV_3 = \frac{D_4}{r - g_2} = \frac{5.437}{0.1124 - 0.0492} = \frac{5.437}{0.0632} \approx 86.051 \]

Step 3: Discount Future Cash Flows Back to Present Value

Now, we will discount the dividends and the terminal value back to the present value using the required return of 11.24% (r = 0.1124).

Present Value of Dividends

\[ PV(D_1) = \frac{D_1}{(1 + r)^1} = \frac{3.197}{(1 + 0.1124)^1} \approx \frac{3.197}{1.1124} \approx 2.872 \]

\[ PV(D_2) = \frac{D_2}{(1 + r)^2} = \frac{4.067}{(1 + 0.1124)^2} \approx \frac{4.067}{1.2437} \approx 3.269 \]

\[ PV(D_3) = \frac{D_3}{(1 + r)^3} = \frac{5.177}{(1 + 0.1124)^3} \approx \frac{5.177}{1.3845} \approx 3.740 \]

Present Value of Terminal Value

\[ PV(TV_3) = \frac{TV_3}{(1 + r)^3} = \frac{86.051}{(1 + 0.1124)^3} \approx \frac{86.051}{1.3845} \approx 62.141 \]

Total Present Value

Now, we sum all the present values:

\[ PV_{Total} = PV(D_1) + PV(D_2) + PV(D_3) + PV(TV_3) \approx 2.872 + 3.269 + 3.740 + 62.141 \approx 72.022 \]

Thus, the estimated value of the stock is approximately $72.02.