A lightbulb is installed. With probability 1/3, it burns out immediately when it is first installed. With probability 2/3, it burns out after an amount of time that is uniformly distributed on [0, 3]. The expected value of the time until the lightbulb burns out is

1 answer

Let's denote \( T \) as the time until the lightbulb burns out. We can break down the expected value \( E[T] \) based on the two scenarios provided:

  1. Burns out immediately: With probability \( \frac{1}{3} \), the lightbulb burns out immediately, which contributes \( 0 \) to the expected time.
  2. Burns out after some time: With probability \( \frac{2}{3} \), the lightbulb burns out after a time uniformly distributed on the interval \( [0, 3] \).

To find the expected value of the time until the bulb burns out in the second case, we need to calculate the expected value of a uniform distribution on \( [0, 3] \).

The expected value \( E[X] \) of a uniformly distributed random variable \( X \) on the interval \( [a, b] \) is given by:

\[ E[X] = \frac{a + b}{2} \]

In our case \( a = 0 \) and \( b = 3 \), so:

\[ E[X] = \frac{0 + 3}{2} = \frac{3}{2} \]

Now we can compute the overall expected value \( E[T] \):

\[ E[T] = P(\text{immediate burn out}) \cdot E[T | \text{immediate}] + P(\text{later burn out}) \cdot E[T | \text{later}] \]

Substituting in the probabilities and expected values we have:

\[ E[T] = \frac{1}{3} \cdot 0 + \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{3}{2} \]

Calculating this gives:

\[ E[T] = 0 + \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{3}{2} = \frac{2 \cdot 3}{3 \cdot 2} = 1 \]

Therefore, the expected value of the time until the lightbulb burns out is:

\[ \boxed{1} \]