A commander faces a battlefield mobility situation. He has three feasible routes, R1, R2 and R3. The payoffs of his choice will be determined by weather conditions W1, W2 and W3. The best result is to gain 200 miles and the worst result is to lose 160 miles. The commander is indifferent between a 60 mile gain, and an 80% chance of gaining 200 miles with a 20% chance of losing 160 miles. He is also indifferent between a 100 mile loss and an 80% chance of losing 160 miles and a 20% chance of gaining 200 miles. The probabilities of weather events occur are the following: P(W1)=0.6; P(W2)=0.3; P(W3)=0.1
Mileage payoff table
W1 W2 W3
R1 200 -160 60
R2 60 60 60
R3 -100 200 60
If the commander maximizes expected utility, which route will he choose?
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