Question

Use the sentence to answer the question.
I’ve never won a raffle before, so I’m not holding my breath
this time even if there are only a few people participating.
Which evaluation of the logic used in this sentence is most
accurate?
(1 point)
This argument undermines its validity by appealing to emotion
in a self-pitying way.
This argument undermines its validity by making a false
analogy about luck.
This argument falsely asserts that something will happen
based on the belief that past occurrences can predict the
outcome.
This argument falsely asserts that there are only two possible
outcomes to a situation that has many possible outcomes.

Answer 1

"This argument falsely asserts that something will happen based on the belief that past occurrences can predict the outcome."

Explanation: the speaker treats past non-wins as evidence they won't win now, which wrongly assumes independent raffle outcomes are determined by past outcomes.