Question

What would happen to the population of both the lynx and hare if the winter snow melt occurred earlier than usual?

Answer 1

Short answer: likely fewer hares, and then fewer lynx (with a time lag).

Why — key mechanisms
- Camouflage mismatch: snowshoe hares molt to white in winter on a photoperiod (day‑length) cue, not temperature. If snow melts earlier but hares remain white for the usual period, they become more visible to predators on bare ground. That raises hare mortality from predation.
- Food/phenology shifts: earlier snowmelt usually causes earlier plant green‑up, which can increase food availability and potentially boost reproduction and juvenile growth. That can partly offset higher predation in some years, but the camouflage effect tends to dominate for species that rely on seasonal white coats.
- Predator response: lynx depend heavily on snowshoe hares. If hare numbers fall (or become more variable), lynx reproduction and survival decline too, but with a lag of months to a year as lynx populations respond to reduced prey. Reduced snow can also reduce the lynx’s locomotor advantage in deep snow and increase competition from other predators (e.g., coyotes), further hurting lynx.

Net likely outcome
- Short term (that season): increased hare mortality from predation; possible mixed effects from more food.
- Medium term (1+ years): lower hare population or more irregular cycles; corresponding decline in lynx population (lagged), and possibly range shifts or increased mortality from competition for lynx.

Longer term
- If the climate shift is persistent, selection or plasticity could change molt timing or coat color frequency, or both species may shift their ranges to areas with more reliable snow. But evolutionary responses are slow relative to rapid climate change, so population declines and altered predator–prey dynamics are the likely near‑term result.