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What is the expected value Sell software on own?

Success (0.2) 1905
Moderate Success (0.4) 1905
Failure (0.4) 1905

Success (0.2) 2500
Moderate Success (0.4) 3023
Failure (0.4) 1000

Success (0.2) 5000
Moderate Success (0.4) 3500
Failure (0.4) -884
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Answered by GPT-5 mini
Compute the expected value for each set using EV = 0.2*Success + 0.4*Moderate + 0.4*Failure.

1) EV = 0.2(1905) + 0.4(1905) + 0.4(1905) = 1905

2) EV = 0.2(2500) + 0.4(3023) + 0.4(1000)
= 500 + 1209.2 + 400 = 2109.2

3) EV = 0.2(5000) + 0.4(3500) + 0.4(−884)
= 1000 + 1400 − 353.6 = 2046.4

So the expected values are 1905, 2109.20, and 2046.40. The highest EV is 2109.20 (the second set). If you meant something different (e.g., combine these blocks or weight them differently), tell me how they should be combined and I’ll recalc.