Question

Week Time series Value
1 23
2 30
3 26
4 29
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Calculate the Squared Error calculation for 2nd week. Using the Naïve forecast, based on the above data?

Answer 1

To calculate the squared error for the 2nd week using the Naïve forecast method, we first determine the Naïve forecast for the 2nd week. The Naïve forecast assumes that the forecast for the next period is equal to the actual value from the previous period.

### Given Data:
- Week 1: Actual Value = 23
- Week 2: Actual Value = 30

### Calculating the Naïve Forecast for Week 2:
Using the Naïve method, the forecast for Week 2 is the actual value of Week 1.

- **Naïve Forecast for Week 2 = Actual Value of Week 1 = 23**

### Calculating the Squared Error:
The Squared Error (SE) is calculated as follows:

\[
\text{Squared Error} = ( \text{Actual Value} - \text{Forecast} )^2
\]

### For Week 2:
- Actual Value = 30
- Forecast = 23

\[
\text{Squared Error} = (30 - 23)^2
\]
\[
\text{Squared Error} = (7)^2 = 49
\]

### Result
The squared error for the 2nd week is **49**.