40pc of New Zealand jobs could disappear, experts predict

Question

SUSAN EDMUNDS
Last updated 18:05, October 8 2015
FACE OF THE FUTURE: ''The Pod Car'' an experimental driverless vehicle.

More than 40 per cent of New Zealand's jobs could go within the next 10 to 15 years, it has been predicted.
CEDA, the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia, has released a report which says about five million Australian jobs face a high probability of being replaced in the next decade or two, while a further 18.4 per cent of the workforce has a medium probability of having their roles eliminated.

Is your job on the way out?
It said the world was on the cusp of a new, different industrial revolution and it was important for countries to plan to ensure their economies would not be left behind.
CEDA's report said as computers increasingly took the place of human labour it would disrupt the way work was conducted and increase competition, which would reduce costs to consumers, but also lead to lower incomes.
Massey University professor Paul Spoonley said it was likely the same trends would be seen in New Zealand and 40 per cent of jobs could disappear the next 10 to 15 years.
"Technology is stripping out the mid-level jobs and the whole lot are being replaced by technology. We're seeing a split in the labour market – there are still high-skill jobs and low-skill jobs but the mid-level is disappearing."
That was seen in firms such as banks and insurance companies, he said.
The report said 60 per cent or more of regional or rural areas' jobs could be lost.
"That's happening in New Zealand to some extent," Spoonley said. "You're left with things like tourism and some local services. We could see a lot of jobs go in the regions in the next 10 to 15 years."
The Washington Post reported that a leading British futurologist had forecast today's 11-year-olds might live to 120 and work until 100, working at up to 40 jobs spanning 10 or more careers.
New Zealand futurologist Ian Yeoman, of Victoria University, said a lot of job losses would be attributable to automation.
But how much that happened would depend on how comfortable people were with accepting it.
He said driverless vehicles could mean the end of taxi drivers, long-distance truck driving jobs and the same technology removed the need for pilots on planes.
"The technology is already there to do that."
He said big freight transport companies were considering the possibility of using planes without pilots. New Zealand could be one of the first ports used to trial that.
"It's already got to the point where planes are all about autopilot. The two pilots you find there are for the plane to take off and land and to monitor systems."
Jobs that required more intuition and unpredictable decision making were harder to replace, he said. "We've tried robots in the kitchen and they might be able to make an omelette but they can't make a soufflé and when things go wrong they don't know what to do."
But he said while some jobs would be replaced, increasing automation was also creating jobs because there was an increasing need for people who were skilled engineers and computer scientists. "You could say 40 per cent of today's jobs may disappear but at the same time there will be new jobs."
Spoonley said the safer roles were those that required interpersonal skills. "A lot of what a travel agent does could be done online but when it comes to your health and wellbeing it's not easy to replace the GP."

Task:

What reason does the article give for why jobs will disappear?
2) Which specific jobs does the article mention might not be here in the future? What reason does it give for why these jobs will go?
3) Which kind of jobs will be harder to replace?
4) What kind of jobs are created through increase automation?
5) Name 5 jobs (that aren’t mentioned in this article) that you think will disappear in the next 15-20 years. Give an explanation why.
6) Come up with 2-3 jobs that don’t currently exist that you think will be needed in 15-10 years time.

answer in one sintis

Answer 1

1. The article states that jobs will disappear primarily due to automation and the increasing replacement of human labor by technology.

2. Specific jobs mentioned that may not be here in the future are taxi drivers, long-distance truck drivers, and pilots; the article argues these roles will go due to advancements like driverless vehicles and autopilot technology.

3. Jobs requiring intuition and unpredictable decision-making, such as those in healthcare (like GPs), will be harder to replace.

4. Increased automation is expected to create jobs for skilled engineers and computer scientists.

5. Five jobs that could disappear in the next 15-20 years include bank tellers (due to online banking), cashiers (due to automated checkout systems), travel agents (as online booking becomes more prevalent), assembly line workers (with advancements in robotics), and data entry clerks (due to AI systems designed to handle such tasks).

6. Jobs that might be needed in the future include virtual reality experience designers (for immersive digital experiences), AI ethics consultants (to navigate the moral implications of AI decision-making), and space tourism guides (to facilitate trips to other planets or space stations).