40pc of New Zealand jobs could disappear, experts predict

Question

SUSAN EDMUNDS
Last updated 18:05, October 8 2015
FACE OF THE FUTURE: ''The Pod Car'' an experimental driverless vehicle.

More than 40 per cent of New Zealand's jobs could go within the next 10 to 15 years, it has been predicted.
CEDA, the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia, has released a report which says about five million Australian jobs face a high probability of being replaced in the next decade or two, while a further 18.4 per cent of the workforce has a medium probability of having their roles eliminated.

Is your job on the way out?
It said the world was on the cusp of a new, different industrial revolution and it was important for countries to plan to ensure their economies would not be left behind.
CEDA's report said as computers increasingly took the place of human labour it would disrupt the way work was conducted and increase competition, which would reduce costs to consumers, but also lead to lower incomes.
Massey University professor Paul Spoonley said it was likely the same trends would be seen in New Zealand and 40 per cent of jobs could disappear the next 10 to 15 years.
"Technology is stripping out the mid-level jobs and the whole lot are being replaced by technology. We're seeing a split in the labour market – there are still high-skill jobs and low-skill jobs but the mid-level is disappearing."
That was seen in firms such as banks and insurance companies, he said.
The report said 60 per cent or more of regional or rural areas' jobs could be lost.
"That's happening in New Zealand to some extent," Spoonley said. "You're left with things like tourism and some local services. We could see a lot of jobs go in the regions in the next 10 to 15 years."
The Washington Post reported that a leading British futurologist had forecast today's 11-year-olds might live to 120 and work until 100, working at up to 40 jobs spanning 10 or more careers.
New Zealand futurologist Ian Yeoman, of Victoria University, said a lot of job losses would be attributable to automation.
But how much that happened would depend on how comfortable people were with accepting it.
He said driverless vehicles could mean the end of taxi drivers, long-distance truck driving jobs and the same technology removed the need for pilots on planes.
"The technology is already there to do that."
He said big freight transport companies were considering the possibility of using planes without pilots. New Zealand could be one of the first ports used to trial that.
"It's already got to the point where planes are all about autopilot. The two pilots you find there are for the plane to take off and land and to monitor systems."
Jobs that required more intuition and unpredictable decision making were harder to replace, he said. "We've tried robots in the kitchen and they might be able to make an omelette but they can't make a soufflé and when things go wrong they don't know what to do."
But he said while some jobs would be replaced, increasing automation was also creating jobs because there was an increasing need for people who were skilled engineers and computer scientists. "You could say 40 per cent of today's jobs may disappear but at the same time there will be new jobs."
Spoonley said the safer roles were those that required interpersonal skills. "A lot of what a travel agent does could be done online but when it comes to your health and wellbeing it's not easy to replace the GP."

Task:

What reason does the article give for why jobs will disappear?
2) Which specific jobs does the article mention might not be here in the future? What reason does it give for why these jobs will go?
3) Which kind of jobs will be harder to replace?
4) What kind of jobs are created through increase automation?
5) Name 5 jobs (that aren’t mentioned in this article) that you think will disappear in the next 15-20 years. Give an explanation why.
6) Come up with 2-3 jobs that don’t currently exist that you think will be needed in 15-10 years time.

Answer 1

1. The article attributes the potential disappearance of jobs to the increasing automation and reliance on technology, which is leading to a disruption in the labor market, particularly affecting mid-level jobs. As technology improves, computers and robots are replacing roles that were traditionally held by humans.

2. The article specifically mentions taxi drivers, long-distance truck drivers, and pilots as jobs that might not exist in the future. The reason given for the potential disappearance of these jobs is the advent of driverless vehicles and automation technologies, which are already capable of performing these tasks without human intervention.

3. Jobs that require intuition and unpredictable decision-making are deemed harder to replace. The article highlights that while robots may perform certain tasks, they struggle with complex and dynamic situations, such as cooking that requires creativity and adaptability.

4. Increasing automation creates jobs that require higher-level skills, specifically those in engineering and computer science. This reflects a shift toward roles that focus on the development, maintenance, and supervision of automated systems.

5. Five jobs that may disappear in the next 15-20 years include:

   • Cashiers: The rise of self-checkout systems and automated payment technologies could reduce the demand for cashiers.
   • Retail Salespeople: E-commerce and online shopping are rapidly replacing traditional retail, reducing the need for in-store sales staff.
   • Printers and Press Operators: As digital media continues to dominate, traditional printing jobs may decline significantly.
   • Delivery Drivers: With the advancement of drone technology and autonomous vehicles, the need for human delivery drivers could be diminished.
   • Travel Agents: The rise of online booking platforms allows consumers to plan and book their own travel, decreasing reliance on traditional travel agents.

6. Two to three jobs that don’t currently exist but may be needed in the next 10-15 years might include:

   • AI Ethics Consultant: As AI becomes more integrated into daily life, experts will be needed to ensure ethical use and to mitigate biases in algorithms.
   • Virtual Reality Experience Designer: With the growth of virtual and augmented reality, specialized roles will emerge to create immersive experiences for entertainment, education, and training.
   • Telehealth Coordinator: As remote healthcare services become more prevalent, coordinators will be needed to manage patient care through technology, ensuring effective communication between patients and healthcare providers.