The sales trend has been modeled as: Sales=7.00 * t + 116.00, where t = time in quarters, with t=1 corresponding to Q1 2015. Seasonality for the four quarterly periods is given in the table below. Find the seasonalized forecast for Q1 of 2017.

Quarter Seasonal Factor
Quarter #1 1.10
Quarter #2 0.8000
Quarter #3 0.9000

1 answer

To find the seasonalized forecast for Q1 of 2017, we need to first determine the value of \( t \) for Q1 2017 and then use the sales trend formula along with the seasonal factor for Q1.

Step 1: Determine the value of \( t \)

Since \( t = 1 \) corresponds to Q1 2015, we can calculate \( t \) for Q1 2017 as follows:

  • Q1 2015: \( t = 1 \)
  • Q2 2015: \( t = 2 \)
  • Q3 2015: \( t = 3 \)
  • Q4 2015: \( t = 4 \)
  • Q1 2016: \( t = 5 \)
  • Q2 2016: \( t = 6 \)
  • Q3 2016: \( t = 7 \)
  • Q4 2016: \( t = 8 \)
  • Q1 2017: \( t = 9 \)

Thus, \( t = 9 \) for Q1 2017.

Step 2: Calculate the forecasted sales using the trend equation

The sales trend is given as:

\[ \text{Sales} = 7.00 \times t + 116.00 \]

Substituting \( t = 9 \):

\[ \text{Sales} = 7.00 \times 9 + 116.00 \]

Calculating that:

\[ \text{Sales} = 63.00 + 116.00 = 179.00 \]

Step 3: Apply the seasonal factor for Q1

From the information provided, the seasonal factor for Quarter #1 is \( 1.10 \). Now we apply this factor to the forecasted sales:

\[ \text{Seasonalized Forecast} = \text{Forecasted Sales} \times \text{Seasonal Factor} \]

Calculating the seasonalized forecast:

\[ \text{Seasonalized Forecast} = 179.00 \times 1.10 \]

Calculating that:

\[ \text{Seasonalized Forecast} = 196.90 \]

Final Result

The seasonalized forecast for Q1 of 2017 is 196.90.