There are 50 books on a shelf. They include 15 mystery novels, 12 works of historical fiction, 8 romance novels, and 15 nonfiction books. If Federica randomly selects 2 books from the shelf, what is the probability of selecting a historical fiction book on the first selection and selecting romance on the second selection? Assume the books are taken without replacement. (1 point)

1 answer

To find the probability that Federica selects a historical fiction book first and a romance novel second (without replacement), we can follow these steps:

  1. Determine the total number of books: There are 50 books in total.

  2. Find the probability of selecting a historical fiction book first: There are 12 historical fiction books. \[ P(\text{Historical Fiction first}) = \frac{12}{50} \]

  3. After selecting one book, find the number of books left: If she selects a historical fiction book first, there will be: \[ 50 - 1 = 49 \text{ books remaining} \] And the total number of romance novels remains at 8.

  4. Find the probability of selecting a romance novel second: \[ P(\text{Romance second | Historical Fiction first}) = \frac{8}{49} \]

  5. Calculate the combined probability: To find the probability of both events occurring (selecting a historical fiction book first and then a romance novel), you multiply the probabilities of both events: \[ P(\text{Historical Fiction first and Romance second}) = P(\text{Historical Fiction first}) \times P(\text{Romance second | Historical Fiction first}) \] \[ = \frac{12}{50} \times \frac{8}{49} \]

  6. Calculate the final answer: \[ = \frac{12 \times 8}{50 \times 49} = \frac{96}{2450} \]

So, the probability of selecting a historical fiction book first and a romance novel second is \(\frac{96}{2450}\).

  1. Simplify if possible: We can divide the numerator and the denominator by 2: \[ \frac{96 \div 2}{2450 \div 2} = \frac{48}{1225} \]

Thus, the final probability is: \[ \frac{48}{1225} \]