To determine the percentage of defective light bulbs in the production line, the sampling method that would most likely lead to a valid inference is:
testing every fiftieth light bulb in the production line.
This method employs systematic sampling, which helps ensure that the sample is representative of the entire production line. By selecting every fiftieth light bulb, it reduces bias and provides a more thorough assessment of the overall quality of the bulbs.
The other methods mentioned, like retesting already tested bulbs or only testing the first or last portion of the production line, may not provide a representative sample of the entire production as they can introduce selection bias and may not reflect the overall quality accurately.