Sure! I'll rewrite the responses, adding more specific data and insights based on U.S. presidential election trends and historical context.
Part 2: Election Results Analysis
1. Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case? (10 Points)
Texas and Illinois showcase starkly different voting patterns in presidential elections. Texas has consistently leaned Republican, supporting GOP candidates in every presidential election since 1976, with George W. Bush and Donald Trump achieving particularly strong victories. The Republican Party maintains significant influence due to Texas' conservative social values, robust rural population, and the historical importance of oil and business interests within the state. In contrast, Illinois has leaned Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, influenced strongly by its urban centers like Chicago, where a diverse and liberal electorate prevails. This difference in political alignment reflects the varied demographic and socio-economic landscapes of the two states.
2. From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win. (10 Points)
In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won Illinois by a significant margin of 25.1%, indicating a strong Democratic base coinciding with his campaign's progressive messaging. In Texas, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in 2004 by a margin of 23.0%, reflecting solid Republican loyalty. Winning by a large margin indicates strong party affiliation and effective campaigning. According to a Pew Research Center study from 2020, a considerable portion of voters identify with their party's platform, and states with deep-rooted partisan identities often show larger margins. High turnout among party loyalists and well-resonating campaign messages contribute to these outcomes.
3. Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections? (10 Points)
Yes, both Texas and Illinois' votes mirrored the overall results of the presidential elections, indicating that they acted as accurate reflections of national sentiments for their respective parties. Texas is a crucial measuring stick for the Republican Party due to its large electoral vote count, which has historically provided a solid foundation for GOP candidates. Conversely, Illinois can serve as a bellwether for Democratic candidates, showcasing a strong urban voter base that manifests in consistent support for Democrats at state and federal levels. This difference signifies how each state's demographics and political culture can forecast voting behavior in forthcoming elections.
4. Look back at the main page at Race to 270. Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate. If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not? (10 Points)
If we switch Texas' 38 electoral votes and Illinois' 20 electoral votes in the scenario where Texas goes to Biden and Illinois to Trump, the election outcome would still favor Biden. Biden secured 306 electoral votes, while Trump garnered 232. Even if Texas switches to Trump, he would gain 38 votes, resulting in 270 total electoral votes (232 + 38). However, if Illinois' 20 electoral votes went to Trump, he would have only 252 electoral votes (232 + 20), meaning Biden's victory would remain unchanged with an overall electoral count of 286 to 252 for Trump. Therefore, Illinois serves as a crucial state for Democrats, while Texas, despite its large electoral count, does not change the election outcome due to Biden’s significant overall lead.
5. What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions. (10 Points)
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, Texas may experience a shift as its growing Hispanic population and urban voter turnout could provide Democrats with more opportunities to gain ground. Younger, diverse voters in metropolitan areas like Houston and Dallas are increasingly critical, suggesting a potential tightening of Republican dominance. Conversely, Illinois is expected to continue tilting Democratic, primarily due to stable support from urban voters amidst possible challenges to its voter base from statewide economic issues and demographic changes. Historical election trends indicate that the growing importance of suburban voters in Texas, akin to recent patterns in Illinois, will likely play significant roles in shaping future electoral outcomes in both states, making them critical focal points in the 2024 election.