The main selective pressure in this scenario is 4. fish population.
The drought has led to the drying up of ponds and a decline in fish populations, which directly affects the long-legged birds that rely on fish as their primary food source. Since the short-legged birds, which eat insects, are less affected by this change, the decline in fish availability serves as a selective pressure that may lead to a decrease in the long-legged bird population and possibly an increase in the short-legged bird population over time.