To determine the percentage of defective light bulbs in the production line, the sampling method that would most likely lead to a valid inference is:
testing every fiftieth light bulb in the production line.
This method is a systematic random sampling technique, which ensures that the sample is spread throughout the entire production line. This helps minimize bias and provides a more accurate representation of the overall quality of the light bulbs being produced.
The other options may introduce bias, as they involve only testing a certain segment of the production line (e.g., the first or last bulbs tested) or testing bulbs that have already been evaluated.