The scenario described suggests that during warmer periods, smaller black bears are favored, while during ice ages, larger black bears are favored. This indicates that the population experiences changes in size depending on the environmental conditions, which reflects directional selection rather than stabilizing or disruptive selection.
In this case, as Earth moves out of an ice age, the selection pressure would favor smaller black bears, leading to a shift in the size distribution curve toward the left (indicating a decrease in size as smaller bears become more common).
Thus, the correct answer is:
2. directional; the curve would shift to the left.