Directions: You will answer five questions based on the data you have gathered and added to the charts on Page 2. Each question is worth 10 points for a total of 50 points. Provide your answers in complete sentences. Answer thoroughly and accurately.

Question

1
Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case? (10 Points)

2
From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win. (10 Points)

3
Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections? (10 Points)

4
Look back at the main page at Race to 270
Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate. If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not? (10 Points)

5
What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions. (10 Points)

i choosed Texas and Illinois

Answer 1

1. Texas and Illinois exhibit contrasting voting patterns, primarily reflecting their differing political landscapes. In recent elections, Texas has typically leaned Republican, while Illinois has leaned Democratic. For instance, in the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump secured a victory in Texas, whereas Joe Biden won in Illinois. This divergence likely stems from demographic differences, such as urban versus rural populations, economic factors, and historical political affiliations in each state. Texas, with its larger rural population and strong conservative values, tends to support Republican candidates, while Illinois, with significant urban areas like Chicago, tends to favor Democratic candidates.

2. Reviewing the margin of victories, candidates who won in Texas by more than 4% included Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, where he won by about 5.6%. In Illinois, Joe Biden won by a margin of approximately 17.3%. Winning by a significant margin often indicates robust support for the candidate, likely resonating with the electorate's needs, values, and concerns. For example, a Google fact highlights that strong economic performance in a state can lead to such decisive wins; states with low unemployment rates and rising job opportunities often lean toward incumbent candidates or parties perceived as economically beneficial.

3. The voting results in Texas and Illinois reflect the overall results of the 2020 presidential race, as Trump won Texas and Biden won Illinois. These outcomes indicate that Illinois typically aligns with Democratic candidates while Texas shows strong Republican support. Looking at Texas as a "Measuring Stick," the state can be indicative of shifts in conservative support given its demographics and the rising influence of urban centers on the political landscape. If areas like Houston continue to trend more Democratic, that may suggest predictive patterns for future elections in the state.

4. If we were to switch the electoral votes of Texas and Illinois with the outcome of the 2020 election, transferring the 38 electoral votes of Texas to Biden and the 20 electoral votes of Illinois to Trump, it would significantly alter the election results. This hypothetical scenario would result in Biden losing 20 electoral votes and Trump gaining 38, thereby shifting the electoral outcome in favor of Trump. Thus, if Texas had voted for Biden instead of Trump, it would have changed the overall dynamics of the 2020 election considerably, demonstrating Texas's critical role in the Electoral College.

5. Looking toward the 2024 election, trends in Texas and Illinois suggest distinct pathways for each state. In Texas, the increasing urbanization and diversification of the population could lead to a more competitive landscape, potentially favoring Democratic candidates in suburban areas that have historically leaned Republican. Conversely, in Illinois, the established Democratic stronghold may continue, but voter turnout will be crucial to maintaining margins, especially amidst rising voter mobilization efforts. Overall, I predict Texas may become increasingly competitive, while Illinois will likely continue as a Democratic stronghold, reflecting the states' respective political trajectories.