Think about what you have learned so far regarding correlations and causation. How does causation depend on correlation? Does a correlation mean there is a causation?

Question

Create and share a real-world scenario involving a correlation of an event and describe if there is a causation which goes with it. After you have created and shared your own scenario, read scenarios from two classmates and explain if each has a correlation and causation.

The two classmates scenarios are:
"Correlation doesn’t always imply causation, because there may be a third factor affecting both variables and even the fact that the relationship may just be a coincidence. On the other hand, causation implies correlation, since both variables would have to be related, or correlate to each other to cause one another. There is a correlation between drowning accidents and hot temperatures in the summer, but hot weather isn’t the reason there are more drowning accidents. There can be different factors like the fact that more students will be on summer break and be able to go to the pool, or more people will be hosting water events since it’s summer. There may be even more factors, like the fact that it can be entirely a coincidence. You can’t just say that summer temperatures cause more drowning accidents, since there can be more factors affecting both variables."
"Correlation does not imply causation because sometimes the relationship between 2 variables is just a coincidence. Other times, a third factor might affect both variables. It's also possible that we can't tell which variable is causing the other. Also, the relationship might be more complex than it seems, with other factors involved. So, even if two variables are related, we can't say that one causes the other without more careful study and evidence. An example of this is: The income per hour and the happiness of a worker. When the income increases, you can't make the assumption that more income makes a worker happier. It can be the total opposite where a happier person earns more because of their demeanor."

Answer 1

My Scenario: Ice Cream Sales and Increased Shark Attacks

In a real-world scenario, there is a notable correlation between ice cream sales and the frequency of shark attacks. During the summer months, ice cream sales tend to increase as people seek to cool off, while shark attacks also seem to spike during the same time period.

Correlation:

The correlation here is clear: as ice cream sales go up, shark attacks also increase.

Causation:

However, this correlation does not imply causation. The increase in shark attacks is not being caused by the increase in ice cream consumption. Instead, there is a third variable at play: warmer weather. In summer, more people spend time at the beach, swimming in the ocean. This higher number of beachgoers results in a greater number of encounters between humans and sharks, which leads to more shark attacks. Therefore, while there is a correlation between ice cream sales and shark attacks, the causation is tied to the increase in warm weather and beach activities, not to each other.

Analysis of Classmate Scenarios:

Classmate Scenario 1: Drowning Accidents and Hot Temperatures

• Correlation: There is a correlation between drowning accidents and hot temperatures during summer.

• Causation: As stated in the scenario, hot weather does not directly cause drowning accidents. Instead, the causation is likely due to a combination of factors such as more people being on summer break, more outdoor water activities, and other related factors. Therefore, while there is a correlation observed, causation should be understood through the lens of these additional factors.

Classmate Scenario 2: Income Per Hour and Worker Happiness

• Correlation: There is a correlation between income per hour and reported worker happiness levels; higher income often corresponds with higher happiness.

• Causation: However, as the scenario points out, we cannot definitively say that increasing income causes an increase in happiness. It might be that happier individuals tend to earn higher incomes due to their positive demeanor impacting their work performance. Hence, while there is a correlation, the actual causative relationship is complex and influenced by other variables. Instead of a simple direct causation, multiple factors could be at play, indicating the necessity of further study to draw concrete conclusions.

In both scenarios presented by my classmates, the analysis highlights the importance of recognizing that correlation does not automatically indicate direct causation, and it invites a deeper understanding of the complexities involved in such relationships.