Megan tells her friends that if she spins the arrow shown, it is a fact that the arrow will land on the purple section. Is she right?

A.
No, because although it is probable the arrow will land in the purple section, it is not fact.
B.
Yes, because probability is fact, the arrow will land on the purple section.
C.
Yes, because it is a fact that the arrow will land on the largest area, which is the purple section.
D.
No, because the arrow will land on a green section 50% of the time and a purple section 50% of the time.

1 answer

The correct response is:

A. No, because although it is probable the arrow will land in the purple section, it is not fact.

This is because probability accounts for possible outcomes, not certainties. Even if the purple section is the largest area, it does not guarantee that the arrow will land there every time it is spun.