To answer this question, we need to look at the 2020 U.S. presidential election results along with the electoral votes from the states involved. The 2020 election saw Joe Biden win 306 electoral votes, while Donald Trump garnered 232 electoral votes.
To “switch the electoral votes” means to allocate the votes of states that Biden won to Trump, and vice versa. Let’s analyze if any particular state switching would change the outcome of the election.
Key States to Consider
Let's consider some of the pivotal states that switched their electoral votes from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020:
- Wisconsin (Biden won 10 electoral votes)
- Michigan (Biden won 16 electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania (Biden won 20 electoral votes)
- Georgia (Biden won 16 electoral votes)
- Arizona (Biden won 11 electoral votes)
Trump won the following states in 2020:
- North Carolina (Trump won 15 electoral votes)
- Florida (Trump won 29 electoral votes)
- Texas (Trump won 38 electoral votes)
Recalculating Scenarios
-
Wisconsin Switch:
- Current: Biden 306, Trump 232
- If switched: Biden (0), Trump (10) → Total: Biden 296, Trump 242
Biden still wins.
-
Michigan Switch:
- Current: Biden 306, Trump 232
- If switched: Biden (0), Trump (16) → Total: Biden 290, Trump 248
Biden still wins.
-
Pennsylvania Switch:
- Current: Biden 306, Trump 232
- If switched: Biden (0), Trump (20) → Total: Biden 286, Trump 252
Biden still wins.
-
Georgia Switch:
- Current: Biden 306, Trump 232
- If switched: Biden (0), Trump (16) → Total: Biden 290, Trump 248
Biden still wins.
-
Arizona Switch:
- Current: Biden 306, Trump 232
- If switched: Biden (0), Trump (11) → Total: Biden 295, Trump 243
Biden still wins.
Conclusion
Switching any of the battleground states Biden won (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona) back to Trump still results in Biden being the winner. The total electoral votes for Trump do not surpass 270 in any of these scenarios, meaning the outcome of the election remains unchanged.
If you consider states that were won by Trump but are critical in the overall electoral map, it wouldn’t impact the outcome for Biden either (North Carolina, Florida, Texas).
Thus:
The conclusion is that none of the switch scenarios from Biden to Trump in the crucial states would change the outcome of the 2020 election. Joe Biden would still have enough electoral votes to win regardless of the state switches posited in the question.