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Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections? (10 Points)

Texas and Illinois

1 answer

Analyzing Texas and Illinois as "Measuring Sticks" for presidential elections offers insights into their divergent political landscapes and voting patterns.

Texas

  1. Overall Results: Texas has historically leaned Republican in presidential elections. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump won Texas with 52.1% of the votes compared to Joe Biden's 46.5%. This pattern reflects the state's strong conservative base and demographic trends.

  2. Predictive Factor: Texas is a significant barometer for Republican success nationally, primarily due to its size and electoral college votes (38 in total). The state's demographic diversity, with large urban areas like Houston and Dallas showing more Democratic tendencies, indicates that shifts in urban voting could reflect broader national trends. However, its overall Republican lean means that, while it can provide insights into conservative voter mobilization, it's not an accurate predictor for Democratic successes.

Illinois

  1. Overall Results: Illinois, in contrast, has leaned Democratic in recent elections. In 2020, Joe Biden won Illinois with 57.5% of the votes, while Donald Trump received 41.2%. The Chicago metropolitan area, with its large population, significantly influences statewide results and Democratic dominance.

  2. Predictive Factor: Illinois can serve as a useful measuring stick for Democratic voter support, particularly in urban and suburban areas. The state's voting patterns reflect strong trends of support for social issues and progressive platforms, making it a good indicator of Democratic strategy effectiveness in similar urban environments across the country.

Conclusion

Overall, Texas serves as a measuring stick for Republican strength, with its substantial electoral votes and the indication that shifting demographics may influence future elections. Conversely, Illinois highlights the strength of Democratic voter bases, particularly in urbanized regions, and serves as a model for states looking to engage voters on progressive platforms. Each state's voting patterns not only reflect their political climates but also offer predictive insights into broader electoral trends on a national scale.