Part 2: Election Results Analysis

Question

Directions: You will answer five questions based on the data you have gathered and added to the charts on Page 2. Each question is worth 10 points for a total of 50 points. Provide your answers in complete sentences. Answer thoroughly and accurately.
1
Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case? (10 Points)

2
From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win. (10 Points)

3
Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections? (10 Points)

4
Look back at the main page at Race to 270
Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate. If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not? (10 Points)

5
What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions. (10 Points)

Answer 1

Election Results Analysis

1. Voting Patterns Similarity or Difference
   The voting patterns in my two selected states differ significantly. For example, State A consistently supported the Democratic Party in the recent elections, while State B opted for the Republican Party. This divergence may be attributed to various demographics, urban-rural divides, economic structures, and cultural differences that shape political ideologies within each state. Additionally, historical trends and major local issues can influence voting behavior, contributing to the differing outcomes.

2. Margin of Victories
   In the recent elections, candidates in both states who won by more than a 4% margin included Candidate X in State A and Candidate Y in State B. Winning by a substantial margin often indicates a strong alignment between the candidate's platform and the voters' priorities. High margins can result from effective campaigning, incumbency advantages, or socio-economic factors that favor a particular candidate. For example, a notable statistic shows that candidates with well-established local support groups tend to achieve significant margins, indicating their ability to mobilize voters effectively.

3. State Votes Reflecting Presidential Race Results
   Yes, the results from both states mirrored the overall presidential election outcome, with the same candidate winning in each case. Analyzing State A as a "Measuring Stick," it could serve as a predictor for future elections based on its diverse population and progressive policies, which may reflect broader national trends. The voting patterns in State A often align with young, urban, and diverse demographics, suggesting their voting may forecast national outcomes.

4. Evaluating Electoral Vote Swaps
   If we were to switch the electoral votes of my states with the outcome of the 2020 election, the outcome would indeed change. Specifically, if State A, which traditionally leans Democratic, had gone Republican, it could have shifted the balance needed for victory. This demonstrates that the electoral weight of individual states significantly impacts the overall outcome, revealing how critical electoral dynamics can be in determining presidential elections.

5. Predictions for the 2024 Election
   Looking forward to the 2024 election, I predict that State A may continue to trend Democratic due to its youthful population and increasing urbanization. Conversely, State B may see an increase in Republican voter turnout driven by conservative policy appeals and local economic issues. Given these trends, it seems likely that State A will favor a candidate who focuses on progressive issues such as climate change and healthcare, while State B may respond favorably to candidates emphasizing tax cuts and economic growth. Thus, monitoring local trends and demographics will be crucial in predicting the outcomes.