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Directions: You will select 2 states from the teacher provided list to research the presidential election results from six of the past US presidential elections. Choose two states from this list: *** NOTE: If you select any state that is not on the list above, you will receive a zero. Complete the chart using the research that you conducted. Texas and Mississippi

Year
State 1: Mississippi (25 points)
State 2: Texas (25 points)

Who became President?

Identify the Presidential candidate who won the overall election & their political party
Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column.
What was the margin of victory?
(in percentages)

The difference between the republican and democrat % for the state.
Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column.
What was the margin of victory?
(in percentages)

The difference between the republican and democrat % for the state.
Dem
Rep
Dem
Rep
Presidential Candidate
Political Party
2020

2016

2012

2008

2004

2000

Part 2: Election Results Analysis

Directions: You will answer five questions based on the data you have gathered and added to the charts on Page 2. Each question is worth 10 points for a total of 50 points. Provide your answers in complete sentences. Answer thoroughly and accurately.
1
Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case? (10 Points)

2
From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win. (10 Points)

3
Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections? (10 Points)

4
Look back at the main page at Race to 270
Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate. If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not? (10 Points)

5
What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions. (10 Points)

1 answer

Sure, I can help you fill out the chart and the analysis based on the presidential election results for Texas and Mississippi. Below is the information for the two states for the requested years:

Presidential Election Results

| Year | State 1: Mississippi | | State 2: Texas | | |------|----------------------|---|----------------|---| | | Dem | Rep | | Dem | Rep | | Presidential Candidate | Political Party | Electoral College Votes | Margin of Victory (%) | Electoral College Votes | Margin of Victory (%) | | 2020 | Joe Biden | Democratic | 6 Votes (36.57%) | Donald Trump | Republican | 34 Votes (52.09%) | 5.5% | | 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 3 Votes (43.1%) | Donald Trump | Republican | 36 Votes (52.2%) | 9% | | 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 10 Votes (44.43%) | Mitt Romney | Republican | 38 Votes (57.2%) | 13% | | 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 10 Votes (53.68%) | John McCain | Republican | 34 Votes (43.7%) | 10% | | 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 40% | George W. Bush | Republican | 34 Votes (61.05%) | 21% | | 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 47.87% | George W. Bush | Republican | 32 Votes (59.31%) | 11.44% |

Part 2: Election Results Analysis

  1. Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case?

    • Texas and Mississippi have different voting patterns. In Mississippi, the Democratic Party has not won any of the last six presidential elections, while Texas shifted from supporting the Democratic Party in the early 2000s to consistently supporting the Republican Party in the last few elections. This difference could be attributed to demographic changes, economic factors, and cultural influences in Texas as it has grown to be a more diverse and urbanized state over the years, while Mississippi remains more rural and conservative.

  2. From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win.

    • In Texas, Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2020 with margins greater than 4%. In Mississippi, all the Republican candidates won by margins greater than 4%. Candidates can win by a large margin due to a strong party base, effective campaigning, and uniting voters around specific issues. For instance, in 2004, George W. Bush won Texas by 21% due to the strong support for Republican ideologies in the state, and Texas's economy at the time was growing rapidly, which made the candidate appealing.

  3. Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections?

    • In general, Mississippi's voting patterns have not reflected the overall results of the election since it has consistently favored the Republican Party. Texas has started to reflect more contested results, particularly in the 2020 elections, hinting at its emerging status as a battleground state. Therefore, Texas may serve as a measuring stick for future elections as population growth and urbanization transform its demographics.

  4. Look back at the main page at Race to 270. Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election. If either of your states had gone the “other way,” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not?

    • If Mississippi had gone to Joe Biden instead of Donald Trump, it would have only slightly affected the Electoral College count since it has a small number of electoral votes (6). However, if Texas had switched to Biden, it would have significantly impacted the total electoral count since it has 38 electoral votes. The 2020 election could have been very competitive, reflecting the growing divisions and changing demographics in Texas. Thus, Texas is critical in predicting future election outcomes due to its larger electoral weight.

  5. What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election, using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions.

    • For Texas, I predict a more competitive election in 2024, possibly leaning towards the Democrat candidate due to urban growth and increased diversity. The state has seen significant shifts that could make it a battleground state. In contrast, I predict Mississippi will remain firmly in the Republican camp given its consistent voter base and social conservatism. However, changes in demographics, particularly among younger and more diverse voters, could start to challenge that in the future.

Feel free to adjust any specifics, as voting percentages and results can vary slightly depending on the source.