Part 1: Presidential Election Results
Selected States: Arizona and Illinois
| Year | State 1: Arizona (25 points) | State 2: Illinois (25 points) | |------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | Who became President? | | | | Identify the Presidential candidate who won the overall election & their political party | Joe Biden, Democratic Party | Barack Obama, Democratic Party | | Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column. | 11 | 20 | | What was the margin of victory? (in percentages) | 0.3% | 17.1% | | The difference between the Republican and Democrat % for the state. | Democrat: 49.4% <br> Republican: 49.1% | Democrat: 57.5% <br> Republican: 40.4% |
| Year | State 1: Arizona (25 points) | State 2: Illinois (25 points) | |------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 2016 | | | | Who became President? | Donald Trump, Republican Party | Hillary Clinton, Democratic Party | | Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column. | 11 | 0 | | What was the margin of victory? (in percentages) | 3.5% | 0.6% | | The difference between the Republican and Democrat % for the state. | Democrat: 44.5% <br> Republican: 48.0% | Democrat: 55.4% <br> Republican: 56.0% |
| Year | State 1: Arizona (25 points) | State 2: Illinois (25 points) | |------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 2012 | | | | Who became President? | Barack Obama, Democratic Party | Barack Obama, Democratic Party | | Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column. | 11 | 20 | | What was the margin of victory? (in percentages) | 5.6% | 16.7% | | The difference between the Republican and Democrat % for the state. | Democrat: 50.6% <br> Republican: 44.8% | Democrat: 57.0% <br> Republican: 40.3% |
| Year | State 1: Arizona (25 points) | State 2: Illinois (25 points) | |------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 2008 | | | | Who became President? | Barack Obama, Democratic Party | Barack Obama, Democratic Party | | Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column. | 10 | 20 | | What was the margin of victory? (in percentages) | 9.5% | 25.1% | | The difference between the Republican and Democrat % for the state. | Democrat: 55.2% <br> Republican: 45.7% | Democrat: 61.2% <br> Republican: 36.1% |
| Year | State 1: Arizona (25 points) | State 2: Illinois (25 points) | |------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 2004 | | | | Who became President? | George W. Bush, Republican Party | John Kerry, Democratic Party | | Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column. | 10 | 0 | | What was the margin of victory? (in percentages) | 5.5% | 11% | | The difference between the Republican and Democrat % for the state. | Democrat: 48.3% <br> Republican: 53.8% | Democrat: 54.0% <br> Republican: 43.2% |
| Year | State 1: Arizona (25 points) | State 2: Illinois (25 points) | |------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 2000 | | | | Who became President? | George W. Bush, Republican Party | Al Gore, Democratic Party | | Identify the # of Electoral College Votes given to the winning candidate by putting that number in the correct column. | 8 | 0 | | What was the margin of victory? (in percentages) | 0.6% | 5.0% | | The difference between the Republican and Democrat % for the state. | Democrat: 46.8% <br> Republican: 47.4% | Democrat: 52.0% <br> Republican: 47.0% |
Part 2: Election Results Analysis
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Are your states similar in their voting patterns or different? Did the same Political Party win both of your states each election? Why do you think that’s the case or not the case?
Arizona and Illinois show different voting patterns in recent elections. Arizona has shifted towards a more competitive landscape with both Democratic and Republican victories in recent presidential elections, highlighting a transition in demographics and voter preferences. In contrast, Illinois has consistently leaned Democratic for several elections, reflecting its urban population centers and progressive voting trends. This difference may be attributed to several factors such as population density, economic interests, and social issues prominent in each state.
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From your Charts - Look at the margin of victories. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won either of your states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin? Find one Google fact to justify why such a big win.
In 2008, Barack Obama won Illinois by a margin of 25.1%, and in 2012, he won again by 16.7%. In Arizona, Judy Biden won by a margin of 0.3% in 2020, which was not a large win, but he did outperform expectations given historical voting trends. A candidate may win by a large margin due to strong party loyalty, effective campaign strategies, or a historical lack of competition in the state. For instance, Illinois’s urban centers such as Chicago consistently contribute to Democratic victories, creating a larger margin.
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Do your states’ votes reflect the overall results of the presidential race (did the winner also win your states)? Is there anything you can say about either one of your states as a “Measuring Stick” for knowing who voted in your state and being able to predict who will win elections?
Arizona’s vote reflects the overall electoral winner in 2020, supporting Biden’s victory, while Illinois has historically aligned with the Democratic candidate for multiple elections. Illinois can serve as a “Measuring Stick” for predicting Democratic support due to its consistent results reflecting a significant Democratic base. In contrast, Arizona shows a more diverse electorate that can sway depending on various factors including voter turnout and national political climates.
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Look back at the main page at Race to 270. Switch the electoral votes in your states with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate. If either of your states had gone the “other way” would the outcome of the 2020 election change? If so, which state and why? If not, why not?
If Arizona’s 11 electoral votes had flipped in the 2020 election, meaning Trump had won the state, Biden would have lost a significant set of votes. The overall outcome would depend on other swing states; however, losing Arizona would have put more pressure on Biden, making it difficult for him to secure the presidency without winning additional critical states. Illinois, being a strong Democratic state, wouldn’t change the overall election outcome since its votes were anticipated for Biden.
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What predictions do you have for your two states going forward to the 2024 election using the trends you charted out in those two states? Justify your opinions.
For the 2024 election, Arizona may continue to exhibit competitive elections, potentially leaning to the Democrats, as younger and more diverse voter demographics are becoming more prominent. Conversely, Illinois is likely to continue its Democratic stronghold due to established party loyalty and urban voting patterns. The changing demographics in Arizona alongside ongoing issues such as immigration and economic policy will remain crucial in shaping voter preferences. The state could be a battleground, reflecting national trends. In contrast, Illinois's electorate is deeply set in its Democratic identity, ensuring robust support for the Democratic Party in future elections.