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Write a commentary on this article:

JAKARTA: An appeal to sacrifice 1,000 goats fol lowing a a string of natural disasters has Indonesia's beleaguered president ap pealing for calm among his panicked countrymen. cataclysmic

After tsunami, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions which have left more than 224,000 Indonesians dead or missing across Sumatra and surrounding islands, a flood of SMS warnings abound that the country's

capital Jakarta is next. The quakes have steadi-ly been moving south after a devastating magnitude 9.3 quake struck Aceh on Boxing Day.

The quake, one of the largest ever recorded, trig gering tsunamis which swept across the Indian Ocean, swallowing entire coastal communities in In-donesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Two weeks ago another powerful tremor hit the surfing paradise of Nias is-land off the north Sumatra coast, killing more than

600 people and leaving thousands more homeless. On Sunday, an earth-

quake hit the west Sumatra capital minimal Padang. causing damage but prompting panic that saw thousands of residents flee to higher ground fearing fresh tsunamis.

And overnight terrified villagers fled homes around Padang after the 2.599 meter volcano Mt Talang erupted, spewing ash for more than a kilo-metre around its peak

An SMS appeal went out in conspiracy and su-perstition-crazy Indonesia that Jakarta would soon follow and tsunamis be or hit by quakes。

The chain text message appealed to President Susi-lo Bambang Yudhoyono to take action.

"Mr President, please sacrifice 1,000 goats," "the mysterious SMS pleaded. But Yudhoyono shook off the plea while hosting a function Palace. at the State

"If I complied with this

extraordinary and unique request, I couldn't come to the disaster site or control emergency requests," the former general said.

"We should bring our selves closer to God and pray not not to be given more difficult tests."

Yudhoyono said he had asked Indonesia's police chief General Dai Bachtiar to investigate the source of the mysterioLIS SMS appeal.

"It's not good," he said, adding that if there any warning of an earthquake or tsunami in Jakarta, it would be instantly broad-cast through the media. "Don't be afraid," he said.

He said all the quakes and eruptions could be ex-plained scientifically by recent movements in the earth's crust.

"So don't make any su-perstition about Yudhoyono said. them,"

"Even if I sacrificed 1,000 goats, disasters in In-donesia will AAP not end."-
Question: Are the people's request for "goat sacrifice to stop natural disaster" based on Science or is it mere religious belief?

1. If it is scientific: (a) What is the casual connection (goat sacrifice to stop earth quakes)? and

(b) Can that established physical connection be repeated or is open to testing by others to effect a desired outcome?

2. How does President Yudhyono's reply fit into this debate?

8. If it's not a scientific claim, what is it based on?

Answers

GPT-4o mini
The article illustrates the intersection of fear, superstition, and leadership amidst natural disasters that have ravaged Indonesia. The request for a ritual sacrifice of 1,000 goats to appease the forces perceived to be causing these calamities raises profound questions about the nature of belief and the role of science in public understanding.

1. **Scientific Claims vs. Superstitious Beliefs**

(a) The proposal to sacrifice goats as a means to stop earthquakes and other natural disasters is not grounded in scientific understanding. There is no causal relationship established between goat sacrifice and the mitigation of seismic or volcanic activity. Earthquake occurrences and volcanic eruptions are geological phenomena tied to the movements of tectonic plates and other natural processes. These events have well-documented scientific explanations, such as pressure accumulation along fault lines, which cannot be influenced by human actions like animal sacrifices.

(b) This lack of a scientific basis means that any claimed connection cannot be tested or repeated. Scientific methodologies rely on reproducibility; for an effect (like the cessation of earthquakes) to be considered valid, it must be observable under controlled conditions. The relationship proposed in this case—sacrificing goats to prevent natural disasters—does not lend itself to these principles, making it an unfounded belief rather than a scientific claim.

2. **President Yudhoyono's Response**

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's approach to the SMS appeal reflects a commitment to rational discourse and public reassurance. By dismissing the fantastical notion of goat sacrifices, he emphasizes the importance of scientific understanding over superstition. He expresses the need to be realistic about the causes of natural disasters and encourages citizens to seek solace in prayer rather than in rituals lacking empirical support.

Yudhoyono's insistence on investigating the origins of the SMS appeal also highlights the dangers of misinformation, particularly in times of crisis. His assertion that such beliefs can escalate panic suggests a leader conscious of the urgency in addressing both the tangible and intangible impacts of disaster. By directing citizens to remain calm and assuring them that any warnings about potential seismic events would be communicated publicly, Yudhoyono tries to foster a sense of community resilience based on trust in leadership and scientific insight.

3. **Cultural Context of Belief**

If the appeal for goat sacrifice is not a scientific claim, it is rooted in a blend of traditional beliefs, cultural practices, and the psychological response to disaster. In many societies, rituals arise from an attempt to exert control in the face of overwhelming natural forces. The act of sacrifice can represent two things: a desperate need for appeasement of the forces perceived to be causing suffering, or a means to channel collective anxiety into a ritualistic framework that offers a sense of agency.

In Indonesia, where superstition often intermingles with religion, such beliefs can gain traction, especially during troubled times. Thus, the urge for a goat sacrifice might reflect broader social sentiments—fear, helplessness, and a yearning for stability—rather than a structured scientific understanding of the world.

Overall, this incident encapsulates the larger discussion about science versus superstition, particularly in regions vulnerable to natural disasters. It exemplifies the vital role of leadership in guiding public sentiment towards rationality and resilience, while also illuminating the deep-rooted human impulses that manifest in the search for meaning and control amid chaos.

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