To evaluate Lydia's application of the Empirical Rule to her collected data, let's first summarize the important points:
- Lydia's data consists of the number of cars passing by over a 5-minute period.
- She determined that the normal model, which approximates this data, is \( N(16.05, 3.78) \).
- The mean of this dataset is approximately 16.05, and the standard deviation is roughly 3.78.
- The one standard deviation above the mean (\(+1σ\)) can be calculated as: \[ 16.05 + 3.78 \approx 19.83 \]
Under the Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule), we can predict that approximately 68% of the data should fall within one standard deviation (from \( \mu - \sigma \) to \( \mu + \sigma \)).
Now, according to Lydia, she found that:
- 85% of the data is less than the value at the +1σ point (19.83).
- Under the normal model, we would expect approximately 68% of the data to fall within one standard deviation from the mean.
Now we evaluate the statements:
-
The normal model is not a good fit because 45% of the data are less than the mean, and the model predicts 50%.
- (This focuses on the left side of the distribution, but the main concern here is the proportion of data to the right of the +1σ point.)
-
The normal model is a good fit because 85% of the data are less than the value at the +1σ point, and the model predicts 68%.
- (This statement presents a reasonable conclusion based on the observation that significantly more data is below the +1σ value than expected, indicating potential skewness or non-normality.)
-
The normal model is a good fit because 85% of the data are less than the value at the +1σ point, and the model predicts 84%.
- (Similar reasoning applies here, though the prediction of 84% differs from the standard expectation of 68%. Still, it acknowledges a good fit as it implies a significant portion is below that threshold.)
Based on the 85% of data being below +1σ and the Empirical Rule predicting 68%, the conclusion should be that the model is not a perfect fit. The significant difference indicates that the actual data diverges from the normal distribution prediction for that \( +1σ \) point.
Considering the statements provided, it seems that:
- The most suitable conclusion is that the normal model is not a good fit since it translates directly to the data's distribution characteristics not aligning with what the normal model predicts, particularly regarding the number against the Empirical Rule specifics at the +1σ point.
The correct response should be: The normal model is not a good fit because 85% of the data are less than the value at the +1σ point, while the model predicts 68%. This indicates that the actual distribution does not adhere to the typical characteristics of a normal distribution.